Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Rice +18.5

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the UTSA Roadrunners.  They are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season and coming off a thrilling 52-46 win over Western Kentucky.  That shootout will have taken a lot out of them after giving up 670 total yards to the Hilltoppers.

Now UTSA will be playing for a 7th consecutive week to add to their fatigue.  They'll have a hard time getting up to face Rice and win this game by margin.  It's not like they are blowing teams out with five of their wins coming by 14 points or less.  The only exception was a blowout win over terrible FCS Lamar as a 37.5-point favorite.

Rice is in a great spot.  The Owls come in rested off their bye week and looking forward to facing the unbeaten Roadrunners.  They will treat this game like their 'Super Bowl'.  Rice also benefits from playing the much tougher schedule of these two teams as their three losses have come to Arkansas, Texas and Houston.  Remember, they were tied with Arkansas in the 4th quarter.

UTSA is 6-0 despite only outgaining opponents by 0.3 yards per play, averaging 5.8 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.5 yards per play on defense.  They are nowhere near as good as their record.  Each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 17 points or fewer, and I expect that trend to continue here.

Rice is 27-8 ATS in its last 35 games after allowing 75 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Owls are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Roadrunners are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Rice Saturday.

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