Free Picks

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #322 Florida State Seminoles over Louisville Cardinals (8p.m., Saturday, December 2 ABC) The Seminoles need a win to complete an undefeated regular season and likely a trip to the college football playoff. Florida State beat Louisville last year with QB Joran Travis got injured as well and look for the same thing to happen in 2023. Louisville lost to their rival last week for a fifth straight games despite having a double digit lead. I look for their to be a carryover effect into this game and Coach Brohm does not perform well in December. Lay the points with the better all around team in this game. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in football, basketball, and hockey. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Houston Texans -3

The Houston Texans have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games with each of their last three ATS losses coming by a combined 3 points.  They have had some pretty poor luck on the covering front, otherwise they would be closer to 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  I think they are undervalued this week as only 3-point home favorites over the Broncos as a result.

They missed two FG's last week including the potential game-tying FG off the crossbar in their 24-21 home loss to the Jaguars as 1-point dogs.  They had three turnovers inside the Arizona 25-yard line in their 21-16 win as 5.5-point favorites the week prior.  They took a knee instead of kicking the XP to seal the game in a 39-37 win over the Bucs as 2.5-point favorites.

CJ Stroud and this Houston offense are humming right now.  The Texans average 375 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play this season behind a passing game that averages 276 passing yards per game.  Stroud is completing 63.7% of his passes for 3,266 yards with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He is loaded with receivers on the outside, and both Tank Dell and Noah Brown returned to practice on Thursday.  They haven't had each of their top four receivers available since Week 1, making what Stroud has done even more impressive.  They should have all four this week.

While it's a good time to 'buy low' on the Texans after failing to cover four of their last five, it's a good time to 'sell high' on the Denver Broncos after going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with four of those wins coming at home.  Turnover luck and home-field advantage is the sole reason for Denver's recent run.  They are +13 in turnovers during this five-game winning streak, which is unsustainable.

Three of Denver's five wins have come by a combined 5 points during their winning streak.  They have had 44 points off turnovers during this streak.  They have forced 14 fumbles this season and recovered 12, which is also unsustainable.  I don't think this Denver defense is as good as it is getting credit for, and the offense has still been held to just 23.0 points per game during this winning streak despite all those points off turnovers.  Russell Wilson cannot keep up with CJ Stroud and company in this one.  

Houston has the much better season-long stats.  The Texans average 6.0 yards per play and allow 5.6 yards per play while outgaining opponents by 27 yards per game and 0.4 per play.  Denver averages 5.5 yards per play and allows 6.3 yards per play while getting outgained by 87 yards per game and 0.8 per play.  Bet the Texans Sunday.

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Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Detroit Lions -4

The Key: The Detroit Lions have the rest edge after playing last Thursday on Thanksgiving.  They also come into this game pissed off after giving the game away to the Green Bay Packers with 3 costly turnovers.  Now they take on a reeling Saints team that could be very short-handed on Sunday after suffering more injuries in their 24-15 loss to the Falcons last week.  They could be without their top 3 receivers on Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave.  Both Shaheed (thigh) and Olave (concussion) left the Atlanta game and are doubtful to play this week.  They were already without their best CB in Marshon Lattimore, and now they could be without their best defensive lineman in Cameron Jordan, who suffered an ankle injury against Atlanta and hasn't practiced yet this week.  The Saints aren't going to be able to score enough points in this one to keep up with Detroit's high-powered offense.  They were held to 5 FG against a bad Atlanta defense last week, and this suspect Detroit defense will get enough stops as well.  The Lions are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after winning 2 of their last 3 games.  New Orleans is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 home games.  Take Detroit.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Carolina Panthers +5.5

The Carolina Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich and promoted their special teams coordinator.  By all accounts players love him and liked the offense much better when it was run by Thomas Brown, who is taking back over the play calling.  I think we get a one game bump from the Panthers here and they put forth one of their best efforts of the season for their interim head coach.  We saw the Panthers play well down the stretch last season once Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilks took over.  The Bucs shouldn't be favored by 5.5 over anyone in the NFL.  Baker Mayfield is banged up, and the defense could be missing several key players in LB Lavonte David, LB Devin White and CB Jamel Dean who all missed practice on Thursday.  This Tampa Bay defense has been shredded in recent weeks allowing 39 points and 496 yards to Houston, 27 points and 420 yards to the 49ers and 27 points and 394 yards to the Colts.  The Bucs have failed to score more than 20 points in six of their last seven games overall, and it's going to be tough for them to cover if they can't score.  The Panthers actually have a pretty good defense that has allowed 17 or fewer offensive points in four of their last five games.  Give me the Panthers.

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Saturday Card has the 2023 Championship Game of the Year headlining a big 4 game Football pack after cashing last night with Washington. There are 2 EXECUTIVE LEVEL tier 1/S up one in hoops and one in football. There is also an 11-0 NHL System play. Comp play below

The NCAAB Comp play is on Ole Moss plus the point or two at 2 eastern. We are playing on Undefeated game 7 or less home dogs of 3 or less that are off a home win and scored at lest 70 points last out vd a team like Memphis that has 1 loss on the year which came in their last game. These small home dogs are 10-3 to the spread long term. Look for the Rebels to stay undefeated today. On Saturday a huge card is up led by the Conference Championship Play of the Year plus 3 more CFB Best bets including a TIER 1. There is a TOP TIER 1 in NCAAB and another perfect system in the NHL. Jump on now as we stay hot. For the NCABB Comp play. Go with Ole. Miss. Rob V-

#311/312 ASA FREE PLAY ON Under 44 Points – Miami Oh vs Toledo, Saturday at 12 PM ET - These 2 met earlier this season with Toledo topping Miami 21-17 keeping it well under the total. We see a similar scenario on Saturday morning. Neither team did much offensively with the Redhawks tallying 299 total yards and Toledo just barely over 300 to go along with 14 punts in the game. On top of that, Miami had starting QB Gabbert still on board and he threw for 202 yards. He has since been lost for the season and the Redhawks passing game has fallen off a cliff with new starting QB Smith completing a total of 38 passes in his 4 starts. Since losing Gabbert they have averaged just 267 YPG on 4.8 YPP. On the other side of the ball Miami has been fantastic not allowing a single MAC team to top 21 points and they’ve allowed an average of just 10.75 PPG in league play. Their conference games have averaged 34 total points. The Toledo defense is also very solid ranking in the top 30 in both scoring offense and YPP allowed. They have held 5 of their last 6 opponents to 23 points or less. The Rockets held this pedestrian Miami offense (102nd in total offense) in check the first meeting as we discussed and that side of the ball has dropped off drastically for the Redhawks. The pace of this game should be slow with Miami ranking 130th in seconds per play and Toledo 68th. And both of those teams have played even slower down the stretch (last 3 games). We go Under in this one.

UNDER 47.5

On Sunday, the Broncos (6-5, 2-2 AWAY, 4-6-1 ATS) are set to face off against the Texans (6-5, 4-2 HOME, 5-6 ATS) at NRG Stadium, with the game scheduled to kick off at 1pm ET CBS for TV.  The Texans were initially favored by -3 points, and the Over/Under (O/U) for the game was set at 46.5 points. Stats: Denver allowing 21PPG (14th), Houston 25PPG (29th), Scoring: DVR 22PPG (13th), HOU 23PPG (10th). Both are bottom 20 in the Red Zone, so that's a WIN. Both like to run the ball (Top 18 in attempts), and both Denver is exceptional running. 115YPG (12th). Last game out the Broncos kept their hot streak alive with a 29-12 W over the Browns at home. Call me crazy but I'm actually buying what Russell is selling. Maybe the Broncs have the run game to thank. The Perine/Williams combo seems like a match made in heaven as a 1-2 punch, the more they run, the more the clock moves, which I'm a fan of, when I have a play on an UNDER posted. I also haven't been overly impressed with the Broncos RUN D, I mean they're serviceable, but are you starting them in FFL? I'm not, so, having said that, I think Singletary can have himself a game this week too. Houston will use the run to set up play-action, we know that. The DVR pass rush is all world currently. These guys are really getting home, but the RUN-D isn't all world yet. The Texans are one of the surprise teams this year, but I'm not convinced yet. They were good, but not good enough to take out the Jags on Sunday and lost 24-21. The Broncos will have a gameplan ready for Dell and Stroud, there's plenty of film on these guys now, and I don't foresee too many surprises. Past matchups: 9/18/22 Denver 16, Houston 9. Since 2007 8 matchups, Denver leads 5-3. Some trends, UNDER is 4-0 in Broncs L4 following an ATS win. We've seen the TOTAL hit the UNDER in 5 of Denver's L6, and all of their recent five matchups vs. AFC South teams. Last one, UNDER is 8-1 L9 for the Broncs vs. a team with a winning home record. For Houston the UNDER has hit in 6 of their L8, plus in 4 of 5 vs. the Broncos recently. In Houston's L5 games vs. Denver at home the UNDER has hit 4x. You know what to do! Hop on! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Boise State minus the points over UNLV at 3 pm et on Saturday.

Most were quick to write off Boise State after it fell to 4-5 on the season with a road loss against Fresno State in early November. A funny thing has happened since, however, as the Broncos have reeled off three straight victories, both SU and ATS, to reach the Mountain West Conference Championship Game against upstart UNLV. There's obviously a lot to like about the Runnin' Rebels but I think they're going to be up against it versus a Broncos defense that is playing incredibly well right now. On the flip side, we saw the UNLV defense sag in a 37-31 loss at home against San Jose State last week. Meanwhile, the Rebels passing game sputtered down the stretch, completing fewer than 20 passes in each of the last four games. I simply feel we have a Boise State squad that is ascending right now, not to mention a program that has been here before, while UNLV is still in line for a correction and perhaps still learning how to win the big games. Take Boise State.