Free Picks

I am looking for a loose, up-and-down game between the Senators and Devils. The pressure is off the Senators after they clinched a playoff berth on Saturday.

The Devils are playing with a nothing-to-lose mentality. They eliminated the Red Wings, 5-3, at Detroit yesterday. It was the 15th time in their last 21 games that the Devils have scored at least three goals.

The Senators have scored three or more goals in eight of their last 10 games. They are averaging five goals per game in their last four games. The Devils have a below average defense and will be starting third string goalie Nico Daws, who has made only one start this season.

Ottawa is projected to start back-up James Reimer in net. 

1* Free Wiseguy Play on White Sox/Royals under 9½ -115

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1% GOLD RUSH on Ignacio Buse/Corentin Moutet: over 22

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: New Orleans Pelicans +6

The Timberwolves felt like they needed to play a complete game going into the playoffs despite being locked into the No. 6 seed in their last contest.  They accomplished that by playing most of their starters and upsetting the Rockets 136-132 on the road as 10-point dogs.

Now the Timberwolves are focusing on health and rest heading into the playoffs in game No. 82 tonight.  They will be sitting Edwards, Gobert, Randle, Reid, Hyland, McDaniels, Dosunmu, Conley and Anderson.  Without eight of their top nine scorers, they should not be 6-point favorites over the Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans have no incentive to lose and I expect them to try and win this game.  They only lost by 4 to the Magic, beat the Jazz by 19 and lost by 26 to the Celtics in their last three games.  The Celtics were motivated to clinch the No. 2 seed and played like it.

No question the Pelicans are without some key players as well in Bey, Jones, Murphy, Murray and Zion as well.  But they are a much deeper team than the Timberwolves.  I really like what I've seen from Queen, Fears, Poole, Peavy and Hawkins here down the stretch.  They will play to win here in their regular season finale.  Bet the Pelicans Sunday.

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Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Miami Heat -5

The Key: The Miami Heat still have something to play for as they could catch the Hornets for the 9th seed and host that play-in game.  Based on their injury report, they are trying to win this game with all of their key players listed as probable.  It's also clear that the Atlanta Hawks don't care about winning this game as they have already clinched a spot in the playoffs and will be the 5th or 6th seed.  It appears they are OK being the 6th seed and playing the Knicks rather than being the 5th seed and playing the Cavs.  The Hawks have downgraded their best 6 players to questionable, which means they will probably sit.  When they do, this line will skyrocket.  Take Miami.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder will be resting starters today with nothing to play for and locked into their seeds in the West.  The difference is the Thunder are a much deeper team and will try hard tonight.  We saw how poor the Suns were without their starters in a 101-73 loss to the Lakers last time out.  That was a Lakers team missing Doncic and Reaves.  Give me the Thunder.

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Pure Lock's FREE NBA play Sunday 4-12-26

Phoenix +7

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Pure Lock has a TOP NBA play available on Sunday on the Magic/Celtics. Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! QUALITY over Quantity here. Currently on an impressive 143-123 (54%) run over his last 267 basketball picks! $1,000 per game players have CASHED $7,020 since February 13, 2025!

Mikey Sports FREE NBA play Sunday 4-12-26

New Orleans +5 1/2

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R&R Totals FREE NBA Over-Under Sunday 4-12-26

UNDER 237 New Orleans/Minnesota

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Chip’s FREE NBA Winner

Denver at San Antonio

Nuggets (+) over Spurs - Wemby may be playing for the MVP but most likely will not see much action in the second half…take DENVER!

On the final day of the 2025-26 NBA regular season, the Atlanta Hawks visit the Miami Heat in a Southeast Division clash that stands out as the strongest totals opportunity on the entire slate. With playoff seeding and play-in positioning still hanging in the balance for Miami and Atlanta looking to finish strong, this matchup features two of the league’s most up-tempo teams, setting the stage for a high-scoring affair that should comfortably clear a total in the 242-243 range.

According to Basketball-Reference data, the Hawks have operated at a pace of 101.6 possessions per game (fourth-fastest in the NBA) while averaging 118.5 points scored per contest. Their defense has allowed 115.7 points per game, reflecting the kind of defensive vulnerabilities that consistently produce overs in their games. The Heat have been even more aggressive in dictating tempo, ranking first league-wide with a pace of 103.4 possessions per game. Miami scores at a blistering 120.6 points per game (second in the NBA) and has shown a clear tendency to allow opponents to reach triple digits with ease on their home floor, where their defensive rating has sat around 114.5 for the season. The combination of elite pace from both sides and defenses that rarely clamp down creates the perfect recipe for inflated point totals.

Recent and historical trends in this specific rivalry reinforce the Over lean. Multiple head-to-head meetings this season have already sailed past the 240-point mark, including several high-output games in Miami where the pace never slowed and both offenses feasted. Heat home games against Atlanta have historically trended toward the Over more often than not, especially when late-season motivation keeps starters on the floor for extended minutes. This year’s edition of the Hawks has hit the Over in roughly 57 percent of their road contests, while Miami’s overall season-long Over percentage sits comfortably above 55 percent, driven by their league-leading scoring and willingness to trade baskets.

The end-of-regular-season angle adds another layer of confidence here. With meaningful stakes on the line rather than meaningless tune-ups, heavy load management is unlikely; both teams are expected to push the tempo and compete at full strength. Fast-paced, motivated games on the last day of the schedule have produced overs at a higher clip across the league in recent years, and this pairing of offensive-minded clubs fits that profile perfectly. All signs point to a back-and-forth, high-possession contest where the total should be exceeded with room to spare.

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My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Milwaukee at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

You had to figure the 76ers would 'go for it', even in a tough back-to-back spot on Friday, and they did - sort of - in a 105-94 victory in Indiana. All indications are that they'll play their starters again on Sunday (with the exception of Joel Embiid who recovers from an appendectomy) as they wrap up the regular season with a home game against the skeleton crew that is the Milwaukee Bucks. Philadelphia enters this contest on a four-game ATS slide. That actually has it approaching uncharted territory as it has yet to lose more than four games in a row ATS this season. Milwaukee looks like it is waving the white flag on Sunday based on its injury report. The Bucks did deliver a 125-108 win over the lowly Nets on Friday. that only served to snap their two-game SU and ATS slide. They've put together just two ATS winning streaks since February 27th. Note that they're 0-3 SU and ATS against Philadelphia this season. Take Philadelphia (8*).

AAA Sports' Selection: New Orleans Pelicans/Minnesota Timberwolves (OVER):

New Orleans is still playing to win with no 1st round picks this offseason. It's seen back-to-back games finish OVER the total.

Four of the L5 games between these two teams played in Minnesota have gone OVER the number.

Minnesota is secured in the #6 seed and will play either Denver or LAL (probably LAL given starters playing today.)

But, the Timberwolves are still a faster playing team, in the top half of the NBA and should remain that way here.

The OVER is 4-2 over their L6 games.

We're on the OVER.

Warriors vs Clippers NBA Free Pick

The Angle(s): The Golden State Warriors are locked into the 10th seed, but are still working on the chemistry for the play-in tournament. I think they'll go for it and can keep this somewhat close, as they're looking to see all their stars back from injuries. 

The Bet: WARRIORS (3%).