Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Betting Pick
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Betting Pick
The NFL’s Week 16 has several very meaningful games where playoff berths and division titles are on the line. One of the more interesting matchups has 11-3 Green Bay hosting 10-4 Tennessee in a Sunday night game.
Green Bay has clinched the NFC North and can clinch home-field advantage with a win and a Seattle loss.
Tennessee is tied with Indianapolis on top of the AFC South but has yet to secure a postseason spot. A win over Green Bay would accomplish that, but so would a loss by Miami or Baltimore.
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Beating the Packers and a loss by Indianapolis would give the Titans the division title.
Betting Lines
Green Bay is a 3.5-point favorite at home. The over/under is 56.0, the best bettor will know it’s the highest for any game on the Week 16 schedule. It’s not surprising since Tennessee leads the NFL in scoring and Green Bay is third.
On the moneyline, the Packers are paying -175, and the Titans are at +160. Green Bay is 8-6 against the spread, while Tennessee stands at 7-7.
Against the over/under, Tennessee has consistently been over, with a record of 10-3-1. The Packers are at 7-7 against the point total.
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Game Preview
Both of these teams have offenses that can put up a lot of points, with the Titans scoring 30 or more in their last five games. The difference comes on the defensive side of the ball, with Green Bay markedly better than the Titans.
Tennessee is 27th in the league in total defense, allowing opponents to gain over 390 yards a game. The Titans’ pass defense is particularly vulnerable, allowing a 29th-ranked average of 276 yards a game through the air.
The Packers’ offense is eighth in the league in passing yards per game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads the NFL with 40 touchdown passes and only four interceptions.
Tennessee’s success revolves around the running game, led by Derrick Henry’s 120 yards per game.
Against the run, the Packers are more than a respectable 11th in the NFL. However, in a 28-22 loss to Minnesota, Dalvin Cook scorched them for 163 yards on 30 carries. If they allow Henry to have similar success, it could be a long night for the Green Bay defense.
Neither of these teams is prone to turning the ball over. Both have nine on the season, tied for the best in the league.
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Turnovers were critical in both teams’ most recent loss. Green Bay coughed it up four times in an overtime setback to the Colts. The Titans had four turnovers in an overtime defeat to the Browns.
To come out victorious, the Packers will need to exploit a weak Titans pass defense and contain Henry on the ground. Tennessee has to get the running game going and keep Rodgers from making big plays through the air.
Game Prediction
Green Bay has played only three teams that currently have winning records, losing two of them. With a record of 3-3 against teams over .500, the Titans are more battle-tested.
However, the weak Tennessee pass defense is a real liability when facing a quarterback of Rodgers’ ability.
This one could be close but take Green Bay, give the points at home, and go with the over.
Green Bay 31, Tennessee 27
