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The Yankees have already taken the first two games of this series in Philadelphia, grinding out a 1-0 win on Friday and a 3-1 decision on Saturday, and now they get another shot at the sweep under the lights on Sunday night. Will Warren takes the ball for New York against Cristopher Sanchez, and while the home team will still be favored on the moneyline, the price and the recent trends make the Yankees the side I want.

New York sits at 59-45 after those two victories and has quietly put together one of the stronger road marks in the league at 33-22. They have won three straight and five of their last six overall. The Phillies, meanwhile, have dropped four of their last five and are just 2-6 on this current homestand against the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees. That kind of home skid is rare for a club that usually plays well at Citizens Bank Park, and it shows up in the numbers. Philadelphia’s run differential on the homestand has been ugly, and their offense has managed just one run across the first two games of this series.

Sanchez still owns a sharp 2.65 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 132.2 innings with 151 strikeouts, which works out to a K/9 of (151 ÷ 132.2) × 9 ≈ 10.25. His home splits remain excellent, sitting near a 1.15 ERA in roughly 78 innings at home this season. The problem is the recent sample. In his last seven starts he has allowed three or more runs in four of them, and the left-hander’s strikeout rate has dipped while the hard-contact numbers have climbed. Warren brings a 4.00 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 99 innings with 97 strikeouts, or a K/9 of (97 ÷ 99) × 9 ≈ 8.82. He has been serviceable on the road this year and has kept the Yankees in games even when the results have not always gone his way.

The series trend is the part that jumps out. When a road club takes the first two games of a three-game set, the underdog has historically covered or cashed at a healthy rate in the rubber match, especially in night games where the visiting bullpen can stay fresh. New York’s road winning percentage sits north of .600, and the mathematical edge on the moneyline underdog in these spots has shown up year after year. The implied probability on a typical +130 to +150 underdog is only about 40-43 percent, yet the actual win rate for quality road teams in this exact situation has hovered closer to 48-50 percent over the last several seasons. That gap is where the value lives.

I like the Yankees to finish the job. They have the momentum, the better recent form, and the price that makes the risk worth taking. Warren does not need to be perfect, he just needs to keep it close long enough for the New York bats that already solved Philadelphia twice to do it one more time. This is the kind of spot that rewards patience and a little math, and it feels like the right play for Sunday night.