Free Picks

*2 Star Play Under* The Las Vegas Aces are sitting all their best players for this game. The Aces are going deep onto the bench in this one. Their top four players are expected to sit out including MVP A'Ja Wilson. The Aces backups are highly unlikely to be able to be as efficient on offense as their stars have been through the year. I also expect a slower pace than we usually see from Vegas. With the Aces pretty much locked into their spot, they have little motivation here. The Wings have been inefficient down the stretch. Take the under.

1* Free Pick on Wings

All plays are made using sophisticated machine learning models.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Michigan State +7

I've been a big backer of the Boston College Eagles this season.  I backed them when they won outright as 16.5-point underdogs at Florida State and I backed them last week when they covered as 14.5-point underdogs at Missouri in their 27-21 defeat.  But I think it's time to fade them this week now that they are finally starting to get some respect for those two performances.

Now the Eagles go from being double-digits dogs to FSU and Missouri to 7-point favorites against Michigan State.  This is too big of an adjustment, and I like what I've seen thus far from the Spartans this season.  This line should be much closer to PK.

Michigan State held FAU to 248 total yards in their opener in a 16-10 victory.  They jumped out to a 16-0 lead and were in control most the way.  Their 27-24 upset win at Maryland as 8.5-point dogs in Week 2 was very impressive.  They really got their offense going outgaining the Terrapins 484 to 339 in a game that wasn't as close as the final score would indicate.

Last week, Michigan State shut out Prairie View A&M 40-0 in what was essentially a bye week for them.  They should still be fresh and ready to go this week.  I am a big believer in first-year head coach Jonathan Smith as he turned around Oregon State and made them a Pac-12 contender.  

He will do the same at Michigan State, and he is off to a great start.  The Spartans have an elite defense ranking 14th in the country allowing 242.3 yards per game and 16th at 4.0 yards per play.  QB Aidan Chiles has been making enough plays on offense to keep them competitive.

I question how Boston College will be able to bounce back mentally from blowing a 14-3 lead at Missouri last week.  They put a lot into that game trying to upset a Top 10 team from the SEC.  This could be a bit of a flat spot for them this week as they won't be nearly as excited to face the Spartans as they were the Tigers last week.  I just think they are getting too much respect for their performances against FSU and Missouri, which are two of the most overrated teams in the country in my opinion.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

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Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Florida State minus the points over California at 7 pm et on Saturday.

The script has been flipped as California checks into this new-look ACC showdown sporting a 3-0 record while Florida State is a stunning 0-3. I see this as a long, difficult trip for the Bears, however, as they travel back across the country to face a desperate Seminoles squad on Saturday.

Cal kept it rolling against an uneven San Diego State team at home last week, avoiding the possible trap following a big upset road win over Auburn the week previous. I suspect the Bears will find the sledding a little tougher in Tallahassee, where the 'Noles aren't accustomed to being on their back foot.

Florida State ran into a difficult Group of Five opponent in the Memphis Tigers last week. The 'Noles ultimately lost that game by a score of 20-12. While it's been an awful start to the season, there is reason for them to be hopeful as they head into a critical four-game stretch that will include a home date with Clemson and road games at SMU and Duke. While the team's biggest goals may be out of reach, there's still plenty left to play for this season. It is only the third week of September after all.

I don't think Cal has the benefit of the element of surprise the way it did at Auburn. Florida State can't afford to take any opponent lightly at this point. I'm willing to bet the 'Noles avoid a third straight defeat in ACC play, not to mention a third loss in a row at home on Saturday. Take Florida State.

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Minnesota +3

The Key: I like the price we are getting now on the Minnesota Golden Gophers are full 3-point home underdogs to the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Not all +3 lines are created equal.  This is expected to be a low-scoring, defensive battle so getting +3 is a lot more valuable with a total of only 35 points.  Iowa has struggled the last 2 weeks against Iowa State and Troy, losing outright to the Cyclones and failing to cover against Troy.  Minnesota has outscored Rhode Island and Nevada 75-0 the last 2 weeks and will still be very fresh for this game.  They didn't have their star RB Taylor in their 19-17 loss to UNC in the opener, but they should have won that game considering they missed 2 FG.  Taylor has returned for the last 2 games and averaged 7.5 YPC while scoring 4 TD.  He means everything to their offense.  QB Brosmer is completing 69% and is an upgrade this season coming over from New Hampshire.  The Hawkeyes should not be favored on the road here.  Take Minnesota.

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1* NCAAF - Arkansas St/Iowa St FREE PICK on Arkansas State +21.5 

1 Unit FREE PLAY on SMU +3

Expectations were high for the SMU Mustangs coming into the season to be possibly the Group of 5 representative in the 12-team playoff.  I think they bought into the hype a little too much and have been humbled now.  The Mustangs barely squeaked by Nevada in their opener, and they were upset at home by BYU.  Now they have had the last two weeks off since that defeat.  They have been humbled, and they will show some fight this week with TCU coming to town.  I think we get the best performance from SMU this season.  I also think the loss to BYU isn't that bad as the Cougars look like one of the most improved teams in the country.  I question how TCU responds after blowing a 31-13 lead to UCF in the 3rd quarter last week and losing 35-34 in the final seconds.  It will be tough for them to get back up and dust themselves off following that meltdown.  Give me SMU.

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #326 Over in Charlotte 49ers @ Indiana Hoosiers (12p.m., Saturday, September 21 BTN) Indiana has been an offensive machine through 3 games this season and I see them lighting up the scoreboard again on Saturday in Bloomington, IN. The Hoosiers scored 42 points last week on the road and 77 points the week prior. Charlotte will be the best offensive team that have seen in 2024, and I see this game easily going over the posted number. Charlotte has played a tough schedule in 2024 and did score in their twenties in their last two games. If they do that again we should easily be able to collect on the over. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring top plays in a variety of sports! Jump on board with this veteran handicapper and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

The WNBA regular season ends Thursday. There are a number of playoff scenarios. This is one of them.

Las Vegas can tie Connecticut for the No. 3 playoff seed if the Sun lose to the Sky and the Aces beat the Wings.

However, the Sun aren't going to lose to the Sky. Connecticut is currently a 13-point home favorite for good reason. Not only do the Sun have motivation, but Chicago has packed in its season. The Sky are 1-4 since losing Angel Reese for the season. They also could be missing Chennedy Carter, their leading scorer and best player. She's been sidelined with a foot injury.

Chicago is 2-11 in its last 13 games. The Sky have dropped four in a row with their average losing margin being 17.2 points during this span.

The Sky-Sun game is being played three hours ahead of the Wings-Aces game. That means Las Vegas will be aware of the result. A Connecticut victory renders this matchup meaningless for Las Vegas since the Aces will then be locked into the No. 4 seed.

So there would be no incentive for the Aces. It would be prudent for Aces coach Becky Hammon to rest and even sit out her starters, who have logged big minutes this season, in particular superstar A'Ja Wilson. There would be no reason to play Wilson, who has been banged up. Wilson already has set WNBA single-season records in points and rebounds this season.

Dallas has been highly competitive in its past two games losing to Seattle by two points as an 11 1/2-point 'dog and getting nipped by one point to Indiana as a 9 1/2-point 'dog.

The Wings would love to close their forgettable season with a victory against the two-time defending WNBA champion Aces. The Wings are the fourth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 84.2 points.

Dallas' downfall is having the league's worst defense. But if the Aces play their reserves, the Wings' vulnerable defense won't be so exposed because Las Vegas has a weak bench. The Aces' No. 7 through 10 rotation players combined to average only nine points. None of them are good scorers.

(Editor's note: Shortly after I released this play on Wednesday afternoon, the line moved all the way to the Wings being favored as Aces coach Becky Hammon came out and said she would be resting her star players.) 

Saturday Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Georgia Southern +35.5 

I'm betting Georgia Southern +35.5 on the spread in Saturday's road game against No. 5 ranked Ole Miss. I just think the number here has been inflated to where you have to roll the dice with the Eagles. The Rebels have dominated their first three opponents, knocking off Furman 76-0, Middle Tennessee 52-3 and Wake Forest 40-6. It just feels like a flat spot being a massive 5 touchdown favorite. Keep in mind they open up SEC play next week at home against Kentucky, which is also homecoming week. Georgia Southern is a program moving in the right direction under 3rd year head coach Clay Helton. They more than held their own in their opener against a very good Boise State team. They bounced back with a win on the road over Nevada and then destroyed SC State. Eagles have put up 30+ ppg in each of Helton's first two seasons (transitioned them from option to a spread pass attack) and at the very least should be able to put up points in garbage time if we somehow need the backdoor cover. Give me Georgia Southern +35.5

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