This is a free play on BAMA.

The public can't wait to fade Alabama this week, and it's easy to see why. They lost at home versus Texas, and then they just barely beat South Florida last week. Well I certainly wasn't surprised by their loss to Texas, with a Non-Conference Game of the Year on the Longhorns. I expected Texas to win that game, so when they rallied in the fourth quarter I wasn't shocked. The thing is, Ole Miss ain't Texas, and Jaxon Dart ain't Quinn Ewers. Before we completely condemn Jalen Milroe as a failure (after 3 starts), let's take a look at Jaxon Dart's first three starts at Ole Miss. He averaged less than 200 yards per game on less than 65 percent passing with three TDs and two INTs in games against Georgia Tech, Central Arkansas and Troy. There are some rumors floating around that Milroe didn't sit on the bench last week because of poor play, but rather serving a silent suspension for a poor attitude. Lets see how he responds after Saban named him the starter moving forward. The Rebels come in 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS, but a close look at those games doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. They were losing to Tulane through the first three quarters, and only a comedy of errors in the final minute allowed them to come back and cover against the Green Wave. Sure they beat Georgia Tech by 25 last week, but Haynes King threw for over 300 yards and he accounted for three TDs. The Rebels allowed the Georgia Tech offense to rack up 474 total yards of offense. I think you have to be quite naive to think the Crimson Tide are going to look anything like they did last week in Tampa. Roll Tide!

GL,

Jesse Schule

7* NCAAF Ole Miss/Alabama Free Pick

PLAY ON ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE -7

I'm going to lay the 7-points with Alabama at home against Ole Miss. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing dips under 7, so it might be worth waiting. I just wanted to get the play out early for people to see. This to me is the ultimate buy-low spot on the Crimson Tide. Last week's 17-3 win on the road against USF was about as bad as Alabama could have played.

Two big things to keep in mind with that performance. One they experimented at the QB position to see if they couldn't get a spark from their backups. It didn't work and they are going back to their starter in Jalen Milroe. He's not at the level of recent Alabama QBs, but without a doubt their best option.

The other thing to note was that being a brutal spot for the Crimson Tide. They were coming off that crushing loss to Texas at home and had this game on deck. Not a big surprise that they just went through the motions against a far inferior team. Saban will be all over these guys in practice and I expect them to come out and easily win this game by double-digits at home against Ole Miss. Give me the Crimson Tide -7! 

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Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over South Alabama at 5 pm et on Saturday.

It's going to be awfully tough for South Alabama to avoid a letdown after securing perhaps the biggest win in program history - a 33-7 rout of Oklahoma State in Stillwater last Saturday. Here, it will be up against a revenge-minded Central Michigan squad that dropped a 38-24 decision, at home no less, as a six-point favorite in this matchup last season. The fact that the Chippewas 'only' lost by 14 points in that game was impressive considering they held onto the football for just 22 minutes. There's a path to success for the Chips in this rematch as they have an effective ground game and a defense that can contain the Jaguars offense. CMU QB Jase Bauer has done what's been asked of him so far this season, taking care of the football (no interceptions) and showing the ability to make plays with his legs. Note that South Alabama has lost one of its top offensive weapons, WR Devin Voisin, for the season due to a knee injury. This is simply too many points to be giving a Chips squad that will relish the opportunity to take a step down in class after travelling to South Bend to face the Irish last week. Take Central Michigan.

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Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 9-23-23

Arizona @ Stanford  (7:00 PM EST)
Play On:  Arizona -12 1/2

The Arizona Wildcats travel to Stanford to take on the Cardinal on Saturday night.  Arizona is 2-1 overall this year while Stanford comes in with a 1-2 overall record on the season.  Arizona has played good so far this year averaging 173.7 yards per game rushing, 310.7 yards per game passing and 484.3 total yards per game this season.  Arizona is allowing only 90.7 yards per game rushing and 301 total yards per game this year.  Arizona is allowing only 14.7 points per game this year.  Stanford defense is allowing 342.3 passing yards per game and 457 total yards per game this season.  Stanford is 6-21 ATS last 3 years in all games.  Stanford is 4-17 ATS last 3 years as an underdog.  Stanford is 2-11 ATS last 3 years when playing at home.  Stanford is 3-16 SU and ATS last 3 years against conference opponents.  Stanford is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS last 3 years after 2 or more consecutive SU losses.  We'll recommend a small play on Arizona on Saturday night!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

*3 Star Free Play on Rice -2.5* The Rice Owls have played better than expected so far this year. Rice gave Texas a tough game for a little more than a half. They then pulled a big upset against Houston. Rice threw for 401 yards in that win over Houston. JT Daniels is a big upgrade from the quarterbacks they have had, and Rice has good wide receivers as well. 

The Owls defense has been much better at not giving up the big play this year. They are 51st in explosiveness allowed. In the past years this was a big weakness. USF is 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive success rate. If the Bulls can't break big plays, I think they'll struggle to keep up with Rice here.

Give USF credit for playing really hard against Alabama last week. Still, that felt like their Super Bowl and Alabama is a very physical team. That makes this a difficult spot for them. Rice is coming off an easy win over an FCS opponent.

Take Rice here. 

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BYU is in an emotional letdown spot after a huge win vs Arkansas last time out despite of being outgunned 424-281. It must also be noted that BYU has had huge problems rushing the ball, which is not a good omen here today. KANSAS is 13-4 ATS L/17. in home games versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 or less rushing yards/game   

KU Coach Lance Leipold, has seen significant improvement in his team since taking over and is off to a  3-0 start in 2023. Also it may come as a surprise to alot of college football fans but the Jayhawks are the nation’s top-ranked team  overall in returning production, and are currently outgunning their opponents this season by an average +231 net YPG.

Key Trends:  Leipold  at home in his FBS career with KU, is  15-3-1 ATS when coming off a victory , including  and has only failed to cover once in 16 games when coming off an away  win, including 10-0 ATS when coming off consecutive victories. 

CFB avorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more straight wins are 23-5 ATS L/31 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Kansas to cover

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Ohio/Bowling Green UNDER 45

The Ohio Bobcats are a dead nuts UNDER team this season.  They are 4-0 to the UNDER with combined scores of 33, 37, 27 and 17 points thus far.  They have an elite defense that is allowing just 11.8 points per game, 244 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play.  Now they take on a very weak Bowling Green offense that doesn't know who they will be starting at quarterback yet this week.  

The Falcons managed just 6 points and 205 total yards in their 31-6 loss to Michigan last week.  Starter Connor Bazelak sat out the Michigan game with a leg injury, backup Camden Orth had to leave with an injury in the 2nd quarter, and walk-on Hayden Timosciek was forced into duty.  He was awful to say the least with a pair of interceptions and only 33 yards on his 10 pass attempts.  

But I have been impressed with this Bowling Green defense this season as they limited Michigan to just 312 total yards and held a high-powered Liberty attack to 391 total yards.  That's a Liberty team that is running it up on everyone else.  Liberty had 526 total yards against New Mexico State and 55 points and 569 total yards against Buffalo.

This Ohio offense has been very disappointing this season with big hype due to having what was expected to be the best QB in the MAC in Kurtis Rourke.  But he clearly isn't 100% healthy in the early going and it has shown.  Rourke has led the Bobcats to just 16.8 points per game, 328 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play through four games.  They actually had their best offensive numbers in the game he got injured early and had to leave in the opener against San Diego State.

Ohio is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine conference road games.  Bowling Green is 18-6 UNDER in its last 24 home games after scoring 14 points or fewer.  The Bobcats are 8-0 UNDER in their last eight games vs. bad teams that win 25% to 40% of their games.  These are also two of the slowest teams on offense with Bowling Green ranking 126th out of 133 teams in seconds per play and Ohio ranking 92nd.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

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1* NCAAF - Minnesota/Northwestern FREE Pick on Northwestern +11.5

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Cal/Washington UNDER 59.5

The Key: Both Cal and Washington have elite defenses.  Cal held Auburn to 14 points and 230 total yards two weeks ago.  They held a potent North Texas offense to 21 points and 225 total yards.  And last week they held Idaho State to 17 points.  Washington held Boise State to 19 points, Tulsa to 10 and Michigan State to 7.  Both offenses are improved, but I think we see a defensive battle in this Pac-12 opener.  That has been the case in recent matchups with the UNDER going 4-1 in the last 5 with 49, 55, 39, 22 and 45 combined points.  None sniffed this 59.5-point total.  Take the UNDER.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on LSU -17.5

There's nothing quite like a Saturday night game at home in Baton Rouge.  LSU has one of the biggest home-field advantages in the country in this situation.  And boy have they looked good since that opening loss to Florida State that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  The Tigers went on to crush Grambling 72-0 and easily cover at Mississippi State 41-14 as 9.5-point road favorites.  Now they host a Arkansas team that has been underwhelming thus far to say the least.  They only scored 28 points as 38-point favorites against Kent State, which is one of the worst FBS teams in the country.  And last week they were upset at home 38-31 by BYU as 8-point favorites, and that's a down BYU team this season.  This is a big step up in class for the Razorbacks here Saturday night.  That will be reflected on the scoreboard.  Give me LSU.

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This is a play on the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS for our Friday Free Play. Wisconsin is off to a 2-1 start but it is a misleading one. The Badgers defeated Buffalo is their season opener and the Bulls are one of the worst teams in the FBS as they are 0-3 and ranked No. 128. Wisconsin then travelled to Washington St. where it actually outgained the Cougars but lost because of a -3 turnover differential which was foreshadowing to last week. They picked up a 21-point win over Georgia Southern despite getting outgained 455-451 as they benefitted from six turnovers from the Eagles. There has been at least a two-turnover differential in all three games so there is not a clear picture of how Wisconsin actually is in an equal scenario yet it comes in favored on the road in its Big 10 opener. Purdue is 1-2 as it lost to a very good Fresno St. team to open the season with a late touchdown by the Bulldogs to seal it. The Boilermakers took care of Virginia Tech on the road as they outgained the Hokies by 141 total yards and then last week saw a misleading final as they were outgained only 455-403 against Syracuse but lost the turnover battle 4-1 and were unable to contain the Orange rushing game. 11 penalties for 127 yards did not help matters either. They face another good rushing attack this week but Purdue is still allowing only 3.9 ypc and can slow the Badgers down and the back half of the defense has been good by allowing only 56.6 percent completions. Offensively, the Boilermakers have been efficient through the air with quarterback Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas, upping his completion percentage each game while throwing for three touchdowns and just one interception. Purdue has played the tougher schedule, ranked No. 26 compared to Wisconsin at No. 77 and a cleaner game here can get them the outright win. Play (308) Purdue Boilermakers

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #355 Over in Oklahoma State @ Iowa State (4p.m., Saturday, September 23 FS1) You do not find many totals this low in college football and we feel one of these teams with have a scoring outburst. It appears Brock Purdy covered up a bunch of bad coaching at Iowa State and Matt Campbell is no longer a hot coaching commodity. He needs to get this offense on track and they need to make major adjustments for this game. The Pokes are coming off a bad loss last time out to South Alabama and they scored only 7 points in that game. Look for one team to reach the high twenties and that should all this game to easily go over the posted total. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring plays in basketball, baseball, and football. Sign-up now and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.

#383 ASA PLAY ON SMU +7 over TCU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Now that this line sits at 7, we'll jump on SMU. We've been impressed by the Mustangs this year with their only loss coming 28-11 at Oklahoma. That final score was very deceiving as SMU as the first downs and total yardage were about dead even. SMU had 2 turnovers to 0 for the Sooners. TCU is 2-1 on the season but their defense is vulnerable. The Frogs have allowed at least 24 points in 12 of their last 15 games vs FBS opponents, including SMU who put up 34 on TCU last season. SMU has won 2 of the last 3 in this rivalry and their lone loss was by 8 points last year vs a TCU team that ended up making it to the National Championship game. The yardage was about dead even in that meeting last year but 2 SMU turnovers led directly to 14 TCU points. That was the difference. SMU can score and keep this close so we'll take the full TD here.

TCU -6.5

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1, 1-2 ATS) clash with the SMU Mustangs (2-1, 2-1 ATS) for the coveted Iron Skillet. The odds favor the Horned Frogs, granting them a 6.5-point advantage, while the over/under for the game stands at 62.5 points. TCU boasts a -275 ML favorite status, while SMU enters as a +210 underdog on the ML.

I believe TCU has made a significant turnaround this season. Chandler Morris had an impressive performance, passing for 314 yards and notching 2 TD's, helping the Horned Frogs secure a convincing 36-13 win during Houston's inaugural Big 12 appearance. This victory marked TCU's second consecutive W following their initial season setback against Deion's Colorado. 

SMU won their opener against LATech but got blown out by OU 2 weeks ago 28-11, turnovers and a blocked put were their downfall. Then they knocked Prairie View around 69-0, but we're not going to worry about that! 

I think TCU will watch the tape and know exactly where the SMU weaknesses are for Saturday. TCU's defense is better than SMU's, and I'd argue their offense is better too.

Some trends to note, SMU are jaw droppingly 2-18 SU in their last 20 games against an opponent in the Big 12, and they're 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. On the other side TCU is 15-3 SU in their last 18 games, and they're also 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home. Our models have them winning by 8-13pts over SMU. I don't see SMU being able to have the firepower to cover in this game.

We're backing TCU in this spot on Saturday. 

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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