Given that the pitching matchup is Jacob deGrom vs. Logan Gilbert, this low total seems justified.

But that is just on the surface.

A deeper look inside the numbers shows that deGrom is 3-7 with a 5.86 ERA when pitching on the road this season. He has a 5.40 ERA during his last 3 overall starts.

Gilbert has a 2.70 road ERA, but a 3.99 home ERA. Gilbert has been hit hard in his last four starts giving up 15 earned runs in 19 2/3 innings during this span for a 10.91 ERA.

Both relief staffs have slipped noticeably, too, ranking 23rd and 22nd in bullpen ERA. 

Thursday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: Mariners -125

1* Free Pick on Rams -3½

The 49ers land in Melbourne with a gutted defensive interior.

Alfred Collins is out, Sam Okuayinonu is on injured reserve, and that leaves Osa Odighizuwa and CJ West as the only healthy defensive tackles on the roster.

That's a bad week to see Matthew Stafford.

The Rams quarterback led the league with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns last season, and L.A. averaged 33.12 points a game across its last 8 in 2025.

Puka Nacua and Davante Adams both come in clean, and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum should find room against a front that can't rotate.

On the other side, 49ers QB Kurtis Rourke draws Myles Garrett making his Rams debut.

Nick Bosa is active for San Francisco, but this is his first game since tearing his ACL in Week 3 last season.

The travel angle is the strongest case against this bet.

The Rams touched down roughly 36 hours before kickoff while San Francisco arrived nearly a week early.

I won't dismiss it, but McVay rested his starters all preseason to keep this roster fresh, and late-arrival travel plans are a deliberate choice, not an oversight.

When the matchup up front is this lopsided, I'll take talent over acclimation.

The fair counter is that L.A. gave up 26.88 a game over its final 8 last season and Aaron Donald isn't ready yet.

Fine.

The offense carries this number.

Both teams sit at 0-0, so this comes down to last year's tape and this week's injury report.

L.A. has also won 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series.

I like the Rams

Dave's Thursday Free Play:

1* on Rockies/Yankees OVER 8

The Key: The Yankees have Aaron Judge back and are raking again.  They have scored at least 5 runs in 7 of their last 10 games overall.  The Rockies have seen 8 or more combined runs in 5 of their last 6 games overall and have a solid offense this season.  Ryan Feltner is 5-9 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 21 starts for the Rockies this year and is in line to get rocked.  Max Fried is still working his way back from injury and threw just 63 pitches 2 starts ago and 72 pitches in his last start.  He'll remain on a pitch count.  Take the OVER.

**9X Top 10 NFL Handicapper!** That’s right, Dave has NINE Top 10 NFL Finishes dating back to 2008!  He is riding a solid 796-673 NFL Run over the long haul that has $1,000/game investors up $54,540! Dave is also in the midst of a 333-276 NFL 7* Run as well as a more recent 151-125 NFL Run that helped him finish as the #3 NFL Capper in 2024-25! He is coming off a 10-4 Run L2 Days! Give your book the beating it deserves today and hop on board for Dave's Thursday All Sports 3-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* 49ers/Rams NFC West *HEAVY HITTER* along with two 6* picks on the diamond for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Friday's picks for FREE!

1* Free Wiseguy Play on 49ers/Rams over 48 -110

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Yankees -1.5 (-130)

The Yankees have a big starting pitching advantage over the Rockies tonight.  Max Fried is 4-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  Ryan Feltner is 5-9 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games overall with all seven wins coming by 2 runs or more.  Give me the Yankees on the Run Line.

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1* Best Bet on 49ers +3½

No analysis provided.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL Headlines with a NEVER Field Totals System NINERS vs RAMS  

The Thursday comp play is on the over 62.5 points in the Florida A@M at Miami Florida game at 8 eastern. The Canes will likely get close to this one their own as Game 2 home favorites of 48 or more are 5-0 to the over since 2019 if they allowed less than 10 points in their last game and these teams average over 57 points. The Canes made quick work of Stanford and now welcome in a Florida A@M team that comes in off a win in their opener and they have a decent offense capable of getting 7-10 points here which would get this over. The last 11 meetings have been Miami Blowouts and the last 2 the Canes have put up 126 points. Look for this game to push over the total. GL Rob V- 

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #344 Syracuse Orange over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 12 ACC Network) Both teams have a game under their belt and we will follow the line movement in this game. Cal has a new coach and system and they fell apart last week in Berkely, being outscored 21-0 by UCLA to lose by 21 points. I do not have much confidence in this team and feel Ron Rivera is in over his head as general manager. Syracuse got some confidence last week destroying New Hampshire and they did win at Cal in 2024 in route to a 10 win season. I see them bouncing back this year and making a bowl game. They should be able to win this game by double digits. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend card featuring top plays football, soccer, and tennis. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 55 years of handicapping experience work for you.

Lions -7

Locking this in early. Analysis to follow.

Sunday FREE NFL ATS Play

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Forty-four and a half is a quiet number until you remember who is walking into NRG on Sunday. Buffalo at Houston, 1:00 Eastern, Week 1, a pick’em dressed up like a heavyweight and a total that already admits this should look like 24-17, not 31-28. The public hears Josh Allen and starts adding touchdowns. The board heard Houston’s front and hung 44.5 like it meant it.

Last year the Bills went 12-5 and scored 481 points, 28.3 a night, tied for fourth in the league. That tape is real. So is a road opener in a building that has treated Allen like a tourist. Including the postseason he is 1-4 against this franchise with a 55.4 percent completion rate. That is not a curse you put on a poster. That is a completion percentage that lives in the 200s and a lot of third-and-long. Houston went 12-5 as well. The Texans were 7-11-1 to the total. Buffalo was 10-8-1. One of those clubs already knew how to keep a Sunday from turning into a track meet.

Week 1 is not January. First real snaps, first real crowd, first real script that has not been stress-tested since the spring. Openers lean under for a reason. Coaches call it safe. Quarterbacks check it down. Clock becomes the whole ticket. A 23-17 Texans win cashes 44.5 in its sleep. A 24-20 Bills win cashes. A 27-13 still has a pulse. The scores that beat it are the ones where both quarterbacks start slinging it in the fourth quarter of an opener because somebody panicked. That is not how this spot usually ages, and it is not how NRG usually ages when Buffalo is in town.

You do not need a defensive struggle that looks like 9-6. You need this to stay out of a late auction. Allen can still be the best player on the field and the under still gets paid. Stroud can still look like a franchise and the under still gets paid. The number is not asking you to fade talent. It is asking you to fade rust plus a Houston defense that does not need permission to hit.

Pertinent ledger from last season, the kind that lives on a football reference page if you want to stare at it: Bills 481 points in 17 games, 28.3 a night, 12-5, 19 giveaways. Texans 12-5, 12 giveaways, second-fewest in the league. Combined that is two grown clubs, not a cupcake and a bully. Combined they were not a 50-point problem every Sunday. Houston’s total record already told you that. Buffalo’s scoring average is the trap. People take 28.3, add a home dome, and forget that 28.3 was earned across a year, not on the first Sunday in somebody else’s building.

The public will smash Allen props and the over because the logo travels and the quarterback sells tickets. Let them. A 220-yard Allen night and a 210-yard Stroud night with a couple of field goals is an honest opener. James Cook can still eat and the total can still sit down. The ticket is not “nobody scores.” The ticket is “nobody turns this into a shootout before the rust comes off.”

Sit on 44.5. If the number drips to 43.5 it gets cleaner. If they hang 46.5, the edge is thinner and you can live without it. Sunday’s ticket is the under, not the chalk, not the revenge poster, not the first-game narrative that always sounds smarter on Saturday night.

Bet under the total in Week 1 games posted 45.5 or lower.

The Under’s record since the 2025 season: 12-7 (63.2%) with an average over/under of 43.8. (+4.1 units, ROI=19.7%)

Bet under the total in Bills road games against a 12-win defense.

That spot since 2023: 7-3 (70.0%) with an average over/under of 46.1. (+3.5 units, ROI=31.8%)

Bet under 45 in Week 1 games that open as a pick’em or inside a field goal.

That spot since 2024: 9-5 (64.3%) with an average over/under of 44.2. (+3.4 units, ROI=22.1%)

Bet under the total when Josh Allen plays in Houston.

That spot since 2022: 4-1 (80.0%) with an average over/under of 46.8. (+2.7 units, ROI=49.1%)

Confirm the number is still 44.5 closer to kick. Confirm both clubs are still listing the names you expect. Then take the under and let everybody else argue about a one-point spread in Week 1. Enjoy the early window. Bet the total. Let the logos yell at each other while the clock does the work.

Player Prop bets :Josh Allen’s passing line is sitting around 221.5. Take the under. He can still win the game and live in the 190s if Houston’s front gets him off schedule.

C.J. Stroud is around 218.5 passing yards. Same lean. Under. A home opener against Buffalo does not require 250. It requires 205 and a couple of scores.

Allen under 1.5 passing touchdowns is the other quarterback ticket. One through the air and a field-goal night is an honest road opener in this building.

James Cook around 73.5 rushing yards is the over that still fits the under. If this stays on the ground, he eats clock and the total still cashes.

My selection is on Cincinnati minus the points over Tampa Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday.

We saw considerable regression from the Buccaneers down the stretch last season as they ultimately missed the playoffs after having it set up on a platter for them in the down-trodden NFC South. So obviously Tampa Bay has a chip on its shoulder entering the 2026 campaign but I'm not sure that will make a lick of difference. I think we're going to see the Bucs get involved in their share of shootouts again this year and in the season opener, that suits Cincinnati just fine. The Bengals finally have QB Joe Burrow healthy to start a season and he has all the weapons around him he needs to take his team on a 'Super Bowl of bust' type of run this year. The big news is that Cincinnati finally made some moves to bolster its much-maligned defense. I think the Bengals defense is well-positioned to come up with the splash plays needed to ultimately pull away in this particular contest. Bettors are hesitant to back the Bengals in Week 1 given their early season futility in recent years. I think this is a team with a fresh outlook, however, and one that brings a lot of optimism into its home opener. Take Cincinnati (8*).

1% GOLD RUSH on 49ers +4