Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Atlanta Falcons +6

I love the spot for the Atlanta Falcons Sunday.  They are coming off a misleading loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, while the Minnesota Vikings are coming off a misleading win over the Arizona Cardinals.  Those results have created some line value here to pull the trigger on the Falcons.  The lookahead line on this game was Minnesota -4.5, which is closer to where it should be rather than -6.

The Falcons were decimated by injuries on defense going into their bye week.  They came out of their bye last week almost fully healthy on defense, and it showed in a 17-13 loss to the Chargers last week.  That was one of the most misleading finals of the NFL season.

The Falcons outgained the Chargers 350 to 187, or by 163 total yards.  It was their best defensive performance of the season and shows what they are capable of on that side of the ball when healthy.  Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions including a pick-6 to give the game away, and they missed another short FG.  I expect Cousins to bounce back in a big way as he'll be extra motivated against his former team this weekend.

The Vikings are coming off a misleading 23-22 home win over the Arizona Cardinals.  They were outgained 406 to 273 by the Cardinals, who went just 1-for-6 scoring touchdowns in the red zone, which was the difference in the game.

While the Falcons are fresh and as healthy as they have been all season after getting their bye two weeks ago, the Vikings are really starting to wear down.  Minnesota will be playing for an 8th consecutive week, and each of their last nine games were all decided by 10 points or less, so they weren't able to take their foot off the gas in any of those games.

Not to mention, the Vikings just completed a three-game road trip at Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago.  They went to OT against the Bears two weeks ago, and last week they used a lot of energy in coming back to beat the Cardinals bye one.  I question how much they have left in the tank this week.  They will be without CB Stephon Gilmore, and both G Dalton Risner and LB Andrew Van Ginkel are questionable.  

Both teams have a knack for playing in one-score games.  Atlanta has played one-score games in nine of its 12 games this season.  Minnesota has played in one-score games in nine of its 12 games as well.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

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At 1 eastern the NFL Comp play is on the NY. Giants plus the 5 points. The Saints are in a nasty 1-22 play against system that pertains to road favorites off 3+ home games in week 7 or later vs a team under .400 that scored less than 28 points like the Giants. There are a few more filters that whittles this one down to nearly perfect. NY has lost the last 7 but should keep this one tonight against a Saints team that has lost the last 4 on the road including one as a 7 point favorite in Carolina. Look for The Giants to cover. Rob V-

SU:9-14 

ATS: 1-22 

Dec 08, 202401:00Sun142024SaintsGiantsaway------5.541

This is the ugly Betty Game of the Week. Its a plug your nose and close your eyes, special. Panthers QB Bryce Young has looked effective in recent starts , as Carolina has covered their last two losses vs. the  KC Chiefs  as 10.5-point dogs and  the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 6.5-point pups. It must be noted that late season DD  home chalk  like the Eagles  are just  19-30-1 ATS L/50 opportunities versus same conference opposition.  With Philly just 0-5 ATS as favs of 9 points or less and the  visitor  3-0 ATS L/3 in this series Im betting the Eagles find the sledding tougher than expected. Note: I know their is this notion the Eagles are are at the top of their game right now after knocking of the Ravens last time out, but truth is they were out-gained by 120 plus yards and could easily be  in a regressionary phase. 

Play on the Carolina Panthers 

Dave's Sunday Free Play:

1* on Carolina Panthers +13.5

The Key: The Carolina Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.  The resurgence of Bryce Young has been impressive.  He led them to upset wins over both the Giants and Saints going into their bye week.  The Panthers came out of their bye week and took the Chiefs to the wire in a 30-27 loss as 11-point dogs.  They took the Bucs to OT as 6.5-point dogs in a 26-23 loss.  Young did everything he could to keep them in both games making big plays down the stretch.  I think he will have enough success against the Eagles this week to keep the Panthers within 2 touchdowns.  It's a big letdown situation for the Eagles.  They are coming off a 24-19 upset win at Baltimore that was aided by more missed kicks by Justin Tucker.  They have another big game against Pittsburgh on deck next week, making this the sandwich spot.  I think the Eagles will give a D-effort here thinking they just have to show up to win.  Take Carolina.

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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Miami Dolphins -5

The New York Jets are 3-9 SU & 3-9 ATS this season and one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL.  They are 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall and they are just playing out the string at this point.  Injuries are starting to pile up too as they will be without their two of their best defenders in LB CJ Mosley and CB Sauce Gardner.  Their offensive line has four starters questionable and RB Breece Hall is doubtful. It's not wonder Aaron Rodgers has struggled so much.  The Miami Dolphins still have life in the AFC but need to win out.  They are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and have been playing so much better since QB Tua returned from injury.  They crushed the Raiders by 15 and the Patriots by 19 in their last two home games, and the Jets are pretty much on those teams' level at this point.  Give me the Dolphins.

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David's 1% NFL Free Pick

We really like the favorite in this matchup. The line looks mispriced when you consider that the Jets have run out of fuel, while the Dolphins, coming off a loss at Green Bay, will be eager to return home to the pond, where they’ve won their last two games by at least 15 points. 

This is a 1% play on the Dolphins on the spread.

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Atlanta at Minnesota 1:00 ET

Falcons (+) over Vikings- After hearing all week what a mistake the Falcons made signing Cousins I realized that he return to Minnesota where he made his reputation good or bad. He has always had a way to stick it to yet when you least expect it and thismjust might be one of those times. Take ATLANTA!

RAIDERS/BUCS NFL FREE PICK

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are banged up and could be in a letdown spot after road wins over the Giants and Panthers. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders, undervalued after an eight-game skid, showed fight against the Chiefs at Arrowhead last Friday. With extra rest and preparation, the Raiders are in a good spot to give the Bucs a serious challenge.

3% FREE PICK ON THE RAIDERS. 

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#138 ASA PLAY ON LA Rams +3.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 4 PM ET - Bills are overdue for a letdown type game and this match up screams that scenario. Bills are off home wins over Chiefs & 49ers and they have Detroit on deck. They already clinched their division and a playoff spot 10-2 record (Miami sitting is 2nd place at 5-7). We think Buffalo is at the top of the market right now and overvalued after winning 7 straight games while covering 6 of those. This is a huge home game for the Rams who are 6-6 (10th spot in the NFC Playoff race) and one game behind Seattle for the NFC West lead. A win here and a win by Arizona over Seattle and all 3 teams will be tied for 1st place. Since getting back to full strength, the Rams have been playing very well winning 5 of their last 7. Their losses during that stretch came vs Miami (LAR outgained the Fins by almost 100 yards) and vs Philadelphia who just might be the best team in the NFL right now. Since getting WR’s Kupp and Nakua back in the line up, the Rams have outgained 5 of their last 7 opponents (YPP) and they’ve gained 10 yards or more and almost 23% of their offensive snaps (5th in the NFL during that span). Buffalo is on an impressive run with a great record but their metrics aren’t that of a 10-2 team. They are outgaining their opponents by only +26 YPG and their YPP margin is +0.4 which is 9th in the NFL. In their most recent road game the Bills were -4 to -4.5 @ Indy and won by 10 with the help of a pick 6 otherwise they don’t cover that game (YPP were dead even). Letdown spot traveling west and we’ll call this one to the wire. Take the points.

Browns +7

Cleveland is worth a flyer on Sunday in Pittsburgh. Winston has been about as entertaining as it gets and he’s putting Cleveland in positions where they have a chance to win. 1 of their 3 wins came again Pittsburgh in Cleveland and they have the confidence to beat this team. They’ll air the ball out once again and they’ll find success against this Pittsburgh secondary. Expect this game to be close while Cleveland has their chance to steal it. My daily free plays are meant to be cheap bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on the BROWNS ATS Sunday. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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