1* Free Pick on Texans/Patriots: over 40½

This total is sitting way too low for a playoff matchup in the modern NFL. Everyone is looking at the snow forecast in Foxborough and hammering the under, but that is a mistake.

The wind is expected to stay under 10 mph. When the wind is light, snow actually helps the offense because defensive backs lose their footing on double moves.

C.J. Stroud is playing at an elite level right now. Houston ranks in the top five in EPA per dropback over the last month of the season.

The Texans are missing Nico Collins, but Christian Kirk has stepped up as a massive weapon. Kirk is coming off a 144-yard performance and gives Stroud a reliable chain-mover in any weather.

Houston is also getting healthy on the offensive line. They have a clear advantage in success rate against a New England front that is missing key depth.

New England’s offense has found its rhythm lately. They put up 38 points on Miami just a few weeks ago and are playing much faster at home.

The Patriots will lean on their ground game to move the chains. Houston’s run defense has been vulnerable, giving up over 4.5 yards per carry in their last three outings.

Defensive fatigue is real this late in the year. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring battles throughout the last month.

The Over is 5-2 in the Texans' last seven road games. The Patriots have seen the Over hit in four of their last five games at Gillette Stadium.

This number feels like an overreaction to the "Snow Game" narrative. We only need 21-20 to cash this ticket, and both of these offenses are capable of reaching the mid-20s.

I like the Over 40.5 (-110).

David's NFL Free Pick

We really like the home favorite in this matchup. Short rest for the Texans after a 30-6 Monday night win in Pittsburgh while the Patriots have stayed home and prepare following their 16-3 win over the Chargers on Sunday which saw them move to 6-2 against the spread as a home favorite. 

This is a 1% FREE PLAY on the PATRIOTS.