Free Play – Take UNDER 44.5 #389-90 San Francisco vs Seattle (8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, Jan. 17)

What a great deal for Seattle as the #1 seed, you get to play a division rival who is extremely dangerous. In two battles this year, both games were handily under the total, with defense dominating. In spite of that being true, the total is 45, which is basically in the middle of the previous matchups that had 43.5 and 47.5, respectively, for totals. With Sam Darnold not playing well down the stretch and likely somewhat inhibited with an oblique injury, the Seahawks will look at a varied running game and short passes to control the ball and clock, to keep the Niners offense off the field. This is not the kind of game the 49ers are likely to have success without George Kittle, and we’ve seen how outstanding the Seattle defense is. Kyle Shanahan will have a surprise for Seattle on offense, which could lead to a TD, but hard to see the 49ers reaching 20 points. When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in conference games, and a team like Seattle after going under the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, the UNDER is 35-10.

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Campbell has recently shot the three-ball, but the Seahawks only concede 29% from deep. UNC-Wilmington is 12-1 SU after one or more consecutive wins, winning by nearly 10 PPG.

EWU is a bad club at 3-14 and is 2-14 ATS, having lost 2 of their last 3 games. Idaho State 10-1 ATS is a sharp after one or more UNDERS. 

Two very similar teams, great at home, not so on the road. Colorado is 8-25 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, losing by almost 10 PPG.

A huge disparity in talent and Louisiana is 1-10 ATS after 2 straight games with 26 or less rebounds, outscored by 13.1 PPG. 

Kennesaw can match the Hilltoppers defensively and actually shoot better. The Owls are 8-0 ATS in away games versus teams forcing

The Lakers are without Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic, with Deandre Ayton listed as questionable. The Lakers play slow, while Portland likes to push the ball, and they have played considerably better of late, posting 8-3 SU and ATS marks. L.A. is on a 1-4 SU and ATS downturn and could be without three starters. Besides, even with those three players, the Purple and Yellow are #28 in field goal percentage defense. With the Blazers 5-0 (4-1 ATS) as favorites and the winner of their contests on a 15-0 ATS run, Portland covers. 

Nashville handed Colorado its first home loss in regulation last night, which was their third straight triumph and 10th in 14 contests. That euphoria might be short-lived, having to face Vegas, who’ve won six in a row. I’m taking VGK on the PL as four of the Predators' past five losses have come by multiple goals. The Knights' power play is presently electric with eight goals in six games, which could be a decider. But here is the important one: Nashville is 1-13 SU in away games when playing on back-to-back days, losing by 2.3 GAG.

The Cyclones were not prepared for Kansas and were whipped. Iowa State shoots 51% and shot 37% in that game. Cincinnati is quite good defensively, but I don’t see ISU shooting below 45%. Besides, the Clones are 11-1 SU after allowing 80 points or more, winning by an average of 13.8 PPG. 

Duquesne is 3-12 SU after 2 or more consecutive losses and faces a Rams team on the road that is above average defensively. 

What a fascinating line move mid-week, when Buffalo went from -1.5 or -1 to +1 at Denver. Josh Allen is a proven commodity at quarterback in the AFC. Coach Sean Payton is not going to make the same mistake Liam Coen did for Jacksonville, which was playing conservatively most of the first half last week. Payton is already on record saying the Broncos have to take the game to the Bills. Allen last week picked apart the Jaguars' zone defense. Denver plays significantly more man defense and can really rush the passer. Keep in mind the Broncos are 12-1 SU as home favorites, winning by double digits. Grab Denver to cover.