At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (483) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (484). THE SITUATION:  Miami (6-7) has won four games in a row after their 34-10 win in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point favorite last Sunday. Pittsburgh (7-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-22 upset victory at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing better lately, with head coach Mike McDaniel doubling down on running the football. They controlled the time of possession last week by having their offense on the field for 36:07 minutes — and that helped them hold the Jets to just 207 yards of offense. With the temperatures dropping into the 20s tonight in Pittsburgh, expect Miami to continue to run the football. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown only one touchdown pass in his six starts with the temperature no higher than 40 degrees. The Dolphins have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after scoring 30 or more points in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Additionally, they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow AFC East rival. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh has played 6 straight Unders after pulling off an upset win on the road. They upset the Ravens last week despite only gaining 318 yards of offense and just 13 first downs. The Steelers are only generating 271.8 total Yards-Per-Game when playing at home, which is resulting in just 16.2 Points-Per-Game. Pittsburgh has played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Steelers have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and the Dolphins have played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total with the Total set in that 42.5-49 point range. 10* NFL Monday Night O/U Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Miami Dolphins (483) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (484). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:15 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers (484) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (483). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (7-6) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 27-22 upset victory at Baltimore as a 6-point underdog last Sunday. Miami (6-7) has won four games in a row after their 34-10 win in New York against the Jets as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Dolphins are playing better lately, with head coach Mike McDaniel doubling down on running the football. But they are also feasting on bad teams with backup quarterbacks. In the last three weeks, they have played Washington using Marcus Mariota, New Orleans with Tyler Shough, and the Jets using Brady Cook at quarterback. Those three teams have combined for a 3-10 record — and yet two of Miami’s wins against those clubs were by just a field goal. The Dolphins benefited from a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a straight-up win against a divisional rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road after a win by 14 or more points. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa completed 13 of 21 passes last week but for only 127 yards. The passing game is simply not as explosive with wide receiver Tyreek Hill out with an injury. Tagovailoa has not thrown for 200 or more yards in four straight games. Miami has lost 12 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record with Tagovailoa under center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of those 14 games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road against teams with a winning record. On the road, the Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games as an underdog getting up to seven points. Furthermore, in their 20 games under McDaniel, when they are a single-digit underdog, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those contests. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset victory, including four of those five games played at home. The encouraging aspect from last week’s win was that Aaron Rodgers not only threw the ball downfield, but he also completed all four of his passes of 20 or more air yards. The Steelers offense did not turn the ball over or suffer a quarterback sack last week — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games in the Mike Tomlin era after playing a game where they did not turn the ball over or endure a quarterback sack. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 home games when favored by up to seven points — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record. The Steelers are only laying a field goal in this game. In their last 35 victories since 2022, when Pittsburgh wins the game outright, they have also covered the point spread in 34 of those games. Since Tomlin took over as their head coach, the Steelers have a 22-5 straight-up record on Monday Night Football, including an 11-1 mark when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: Tagovailoa still does not seem comfortable playing in the cold weather. It will be in the 20s tonight in Pittsburgh. The Dolphins have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their 9 games when the temperature was under 50 degrees with Tagovailoa under center — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games with the temperature under 40 degrees with Tagovailoa, with an average losing margin of -19.2 Points-Per-Game. Tagovailoa only has one touchdown and 12 interceptions when playing in under 40-degree weather. 25* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Steelers (484) minus the points versus the Miami Dolphins (483). Best of luck for us — Frank.