At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Oregon dominated the Beavers as they outgained them by +207 net yards. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win against a Pac-12 rival — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. The Ducks have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning three or more games in a row against a conference opponent. The Oregon defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG — and there are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Washington does not have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games when favored. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games against Pac-12 opponents. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win against a conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Pac-12 opponent.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range. 8* CFB Oregon-Washington ABC-TV Special with the Oregon Ducks (305) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (305) and the Washington Huskies (306) in the Pac-12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Oregon (11-1) has won six games in a row after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. Washington (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Total is in the mid-60s for this rematch from the Huskies’ 36-33 victory at home in that shootout on October 14th — but look for this to be a lower-scoring game this time around. Washington only gained 306 total yards last week their narrow win against the Huskies in the Apple Cup. There are whispers that star quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. is slowed by an injury. The Huskies have not scored more than 24 points in three of their last six games. They are generating only 346.7 total Yards-Per-Game in their last three games which has resulted in 27.0 Points-Per-Game — a healthy number but not indicative of an elite offense clicking on all cyclones. Head coach Karen DeBoer has leaned more on his rushing attack — perhaps to take some pressure on the defense that is not a great unit against the run. After running the ball only 23 times against the Ducks (37.0% of their offensive snaps), they then ran the ball just 15 times the next week (23.0% of their offensive snaps) against Arizona State in that narrow 15-7 win. It was then that things began to change. In their 42-33 win against Stanford, they ran the ball 27 times representing 40.9% of their offensive snaps. The big change came when the Huskies played the powerful USC offense the next week. Washington ran the ball 40 times representing 57.1% of their offensive snaps — and they have continued to run the ball closer to the 50% of the time ever since. On the season, the Huskies run the ball on 41.7% of their snaps. Since the Arizona State game, they have run the ball in 46.2% of their snaps — and they have run the ball in 47.3% of their snaps since the USC game which I suspect will be their template for success in this contest. Running the ball will keep Bo Nix off the field while resting the Washington defense. The Huskies have played  5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win at home against a Pac-12 rival. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. And in their last 10 games after beating a conference rival by seven points or less, they have played 8 of those games Under the Total. Washington has not rushed for more than 125 yards in three straight games — and they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not rushing for more than 125 yards in two or more games in a row. The Huskies do have an outstanding secondary — they rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But Washington's run defense is their weakness as they rank 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 132nd in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. This is where I expect the Ducks to go to work in this rematch. Oregon ranks second in the nation in Rushing Success Rate behind running back Bucky Irving. They also rank fourth in the nation in Line Yards — so their offensive should dominate the Washington defensive front. The Ducks have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by 21 or more points. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by double-digits against a conference opponent. Oregon dominated their in-state rival Beavers — they generated 28 first downs while controlling the Time of Possession for 34:03 minutes. The Ducks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a game where they were on offense for 34 or more minutes while generating 34 or more first downs. Oregon’s defense is outstanding — they have held their last six opponents to 16.0 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on grass — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when favored. The Huskies have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as an underdog. 10* CFB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.      

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 12/1:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with the New Mexico State Aggies plus the points versus the Liberty Flames in the Conference USA Championship Game. New Mexico State (10-3) rides an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win against Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Aggies have to play this game at the Flames’ Williams Stadium — but they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog. Liberty (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday. The Flames cruised to a 28-7 halftime lead — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after taking a 17 or higher point lead at halftime of their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Take Liberty minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 16 of 23 (70%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after DELIVERING their 25* NFC Total of the Month last night with the Seattle-Dallas Over! Now Frank furthers his 16 of 22 (73%) Football Game of the Month/Year Totals mark with a 25* CFB Conference Total of the Year for Friday night Conference Championship Game action! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th.  25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.