FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 12/7:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday is with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers and the SMU Mustangs. Clemson (9-3) limps into the ACC Championship Game after suffering a 17-14 upset loss against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Tigers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after the first month of the season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. SMU (11-1) has won nine games in a row after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Mustangs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total in games when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 49.5 to 56. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is still on a 15 of 20 (75%) All-Sports run despite losing with Iowa State in CFB this afternoon! Frank remains on an 11 of 15 (73%) football streak along with a 15 of 22 (68%) College Football run! Frank BOUNCES BACK TONIGHT by furthering his 11 of 15 (73%) CFB sides mark with a 25* CFB Conference Game of the Year for Saturday night! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 17-14 upset loss at home against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (11-1) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is an incorrect narrative regarding this game that there is public money on Clemson simply because of their brand name. The books initially made the Tigers the favorite in this game — the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas which caters to sharp bettors and is happy to take big action made Clemson a field goal favorite in this game. It has been “sharp” money and the public that has prompted the books to move the line to where SMU is the favorite. I think the original assumptions that led to the Tigers being made the favorite are sound. The Mustangs have thrived on a weak strength of schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 63rd most difficult and that ESPN ranks as the 75th most difficult in the nation. Their best victories have been against who? Louisville? Pittsburgh. They lost to BYU. Their inaugural season in the ACC fetid a conference schedule that avoided Miami (FL), Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. And while their athletic director gets into social media scuffles regarding the strength of their resume, the players and coaching staff are under enormous pressure that a loss in this game will not just cost them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff but outside of the 12-team tournament all together (as playoff commissioner Wade Manuel confirmed as being very possible). This is a lot of pressure for any football team — especially one making their debut in a Power Five/Four conference. As it is, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. All those past games were played since Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or fewer points. I suspect that the Clemson brand is pretty toxic right now amongst bettors given their three losses, the lack of recent playoff appearances, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness to get active in the transfer portal. But this is a great rebound spot for his team that does not feel the same pressure as SMU after their loss last week to the Gamecocks — but the Tigers still make the playoffs by taking the ACC title with a win tonight. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss in the last three seasons. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game home stand. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home when playing on six days of rest between games. The Tigers still have a solid defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added Per Play Allowed — and they rank 20th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This defense is an opportunistic unit whose 23 takeaways rank as the 12th most in the nation. They rank 21st in interception rate and rank in the top ten in Havoc Rate. The Clemson offense is showing signs of getting more explosive. Freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco was targeted ten times last week — he is averaging a healthy 2.3 Yards-Per-Route-Run this season. Even in the loss to the Gamecocks they generated 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry and gained at least two first downs in six of their 12 drives. They enjoyed a Success Rate of 65% on their 54 standard downs last week. Quarterback Clint Klubnik has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions since Week 11 — and he has gotten more aggressive in moving the ball with his legs. He ran ten times for 62 yards last week and scored two touchdowns. The Tigers have been tested in games against Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home either in true road games or on neutral fields. They have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have a huge edge in coaching experience in big games with Swinney and his staff. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December which are all either ACC Championship Games, bowl games, or playoff games. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 12/7:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday afternoon is with Over the Total in the game between Iowa State and Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game. Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 win against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played at a neutral site at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas — and the Cyclones have played 6 straight Overs away from home in the second half of the season. They have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total away from home against teams with a winning record. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Sun Devils have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when favored. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 15 of 19 (74%) All-Sports run after DELIVERING their 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with Jacksonville State last night (finishing 1-1 after losing the Tulane-Army Under late)! Frank is on an 11 of 14 (79%) football streak along with a 15 of 21 (71%) College Football run! Now Frank KICKS OFF his Saturday card by furthering his 11 of 14 (79%) CFB sides mark with his 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year this afternoon! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 victory against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Iowa State has never won a Big 12 championship in the 110 years in the conference — but they have been in this position recently under head coach Matt Campbell who led them to the championship game in 2020. The Cyclones have scored 32.5 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. They rank ninth in the nation by going three-and-out on offense in only 18.9% of their possessions. Their defense ranks 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 19.6 PPG. They rank second in the country by limiting opposing passers to completing just 52.0% of their passes. They also rank 22nd in the FBS by giving up only 5.2 Yards-Per-Dropback. The Iowa State defense gets two key contributors back for this contest as well. Safety Malik Verdon returns to action after missing last week’s game due to an injury. Middle linebacker Caleb Bacon also is healthy again after being out since Week One. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 12 games on the road against Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home as an underdog. Arizona State overachieved preseason and point-spread expectations most of the season with their 10-2 ATS mark. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham did a masterful job improving the talent level of the roster in the transfer portal from last year’s 3-9 team. But there are plenty of red flags that their bubble is about to burst. The Sun Devils won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. They benefited from a +11 net turnover margin. They have covered the point spread in five straight games. They overachieved Bill Connelly’s SP+ scoring projections by +17.9 PPG in those five games. But now their top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is out the season with an injury. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss his 75 catches, 1101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. No other wide receiver has caught more than 17 passes this season — and Tyson is the only wideout with at least ten targets on third down. The Arizona State passing attack can already be a bit limited since 31% of their pass attempts are at or behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the national average of 21%. The Sun Devils defense ranks just 86th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Their defense also ranks 117th in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate Allowed. The Arizona State special teams unit ranks 131st in the nation according to Connelly’s SP+ rankings. And, finally, this is far from an ideal start time for the Sun Devils since their body clock will think it is 10 AM.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones thrive in the role of the underdog under Campbell as they are 36-23-3 ATS in their 62 games when getting the points in his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.