ASA NBA play on LA Lakers -2.5 vs. Golden State Warriors, 8:40PM ET - This is going to be a battle between depleted rosters as both teams have key contributors out for tonight’s contest. Of the two teams, the Lakers are in much better shape. Los Angeles will be without Luka tonight but the Warriors look like a MASH unit with both Curry brothers out, Jimmy Butler is lost for the season, Porzingis is not ready to suit up and Podziemski is listed as questionable. The Lakers also have Austin Reaves back in the lineup after missing extended time so he can pick up the scoring void left by Luka. Reaves scored 35 points in limited action in the Lakers last game versus the 76ers. L.A. has won two straight and 7 of their last ten games. In that 10-game stretch they have the 9th best Net rating in the NBA and the impressive part is that 8 of those 10 games were on the road. Golden State is more pretender than contender and have a 5-5 SU record in their last 10 games with the 15th rated Net rating. The Lakers played well against the red hot Sixers the other night with Luka missing the majority of that game after getting injured. Golden State’s defense is not as good as their reputation ranking 18th in opponents FG%, allowing 47% on the season. That will be a problem against the best shooting team in the NBA as the Lakers check in with a team FG% of 49.9%. The Lakers are the much healthier team here and should win this home over the Warriors by 8+ points.

English Premier League #200101/200102 ASA PLAY ON Over 2.5 Goals (-140) – Aston Villa at Bournemouth, Saturday at 10 am et - Bournemouth takes advantage of home pitch edge here but also will struggle to stop a powerful Aston Villa side. Bournemouth has scored 2.1 goals on average across their last 10 matches! They also, prior to a 2-0 win last time out, had conceded 2.3 goals on average across their 9 preceding matches. Aston Villa is off a shutout loss after scoring 14 goals across their 9 preceding matches. They will respond on the road here and have scored 2.3 goals on average across their last 9 meetings with Bournemouth. Our computer math model has projections that indicate more of the same is to be expected here! Over gets the call in this one!

#792 ASA PLAY ON California +3.5 over Clemson, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Tough situation for the Tigers who are on the 2nd leg of back to back road games on the West Coast after squeaking out a 2 point win @ Stanford on Wednesday night as a 3.5 point favorite. Now Clemson is laying the same number (opened -3.5) in a tougher situation vs a better team (Cal ranks 20 spots higher than Stanford and beat them on the road by 12 points). Clemson has faced the 17th rated strength of schedule (out of 18 teams) in ACC games which definitely plays a factor in their 9-1 league record (2nd place). Despite their conference record, KenPom’s power ratings have the Tigers as the 6th best team in the conference. They’ve had a cakewalk, so to speak on the road, with their 5 road games in ACC play coming against Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Stanford who are all below .500 in the ACC and have a combined record of 13-37 in league play. The Bears have won 4 of their last 5, including a solid win here over North Carolina, and they are at home for the 2nd straight game after beating Georgia Tech here on Wednesday. The Bears are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country (top 30) and while Clemson’s overall defensive numbers are very good, they do allow opponents to hit 37% of their triples on the road. This is a huge home game for Cal (17-6 record) as it’s their last chance for a signature win as they try and push their way into the NCAA tourney. The remainder of their ACC opponents all currently have record below .500 in league play. This smells like a good spot for a potential upset and we’ll take the points.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Marquette -2 over Butler, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Marquette sits tied for last place in the Big East with a 3-9 record, but they’ve been playing much better and at home they’ve been very solid. There is a reason they are favored in this game despite their record. They are facing a Butler team who just lost in double OT @ Providence, the other team that sits on last place in the conference. The Bulldogs had 3 starters play 43 plus minutes in that loss and were already thin with starting guard Azavier Robinson missing the game with a wrist injury. It doesn’t look like he’ll be back for this one either. While Butler was battling in double OT on the road just a few days ago, Marquette was resting at home having not played since last Saturday. At home, the Golden Eagles have won 3 of their last 4 topping Creighton, Providence, and Xavier while losing a tight 3 point game vs Villanova, the 3rd highest rated team in the league behind UConn and St Johns. This is a revenger for Marquette who lost @ Butler on January 23rd by 11 points. The Eagles shot only 18% from beyond the arc in that game and got “homered” a bit by the official with the Bulldogs going to the FT line 31 times (making 23) while Marquette attempted just 14 FT’s (making 9). Butler is just 1-6 on the road this season and their defense ranks 10th out of 11 teams in efficiency in conference play allowing nearly 1.20 PPP. On the road they allow opponents to shoot almost 50% and average 86 PPG. The Golden Eagles are averaging over 80 PPG at home and they’ve beaten Butler 6 of the last 7 times in Milwaukee. We like the rested home team to get their revenge in this one.

#702 ASA FREE PLAY Auburn -2.5 over Alabama. Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 arch rivals are tied with a 5-4 SEC record. Auburn has the much better situation here playing at home after a full week off after losing by 8 @ Tennessee last Saturday. The Tide just played on Wednesday and held on for dear life to beat Texas A&M 100-97 in a game the Aggies led with under 1:30 left in the game. Now they go on the road to face an Auburn team that is 13-1 at home (only loss by 2 points) and has arguably the most impressive win of the SEC season beating 1st place Florida on the road by 9 points. Bama hasn’t been great on the road with a 2-2 conference record with their 2 wins coming @ Mississippi St and @ Oklahoma who have a combined SEC record of 4-12. In their 2 road games vs teams in the top half of the SEC the Tide got blown out @ Florida and lost by 6 @ Vandy. They live and die with the 3 point shot with a whopping 54% of their shots coming from beyond the arc (2nd most in the nation). Problem is, they only make 32% of their triples on the road which is why they are only 2-2 on the road in conference play. The Tigers have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in conference play and we like this rested home team to get the home win and cover.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Hawaii -7 over UC San Diego, Saturday at 11:59 PM ET - We were on UC San Diego when these two met back in early January and picked up a solid win. We’re flipping the script here and grabbing Hawaii at home as things have changed quite drastically since that game. Since that win, UCSD simply hasn’t played well. They have a record of 4-5 SU (2-7 ATS) since beating Hawaii at home and 3 of their 4 wins have come vs 3 of the 4 lowest rated teams in the Big West (per KenPom). The Tritons have actually lost 4 games outright as a favorite since their win over Hawaii. They nearly lost another game as a favorite on Thursday night when they played host to Long Beach State who has a record of 8-16 on the season. UCSD won that game by 3 points but only led for 32% of the game and LBSU played without their leading scorer Sykes who averages 18 PPG. The Rainbows sit in 2nd place in the Big West 1 game behind UC Irvine, who they beat at home and lost in OT on the road. They are 13-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming vs Arizona State. They are also in the much better situational spot here as the Rainbows have had a full week off since winning @ Long Beach State last Saturday while UCSD played on Thursday night then had to make the long trip to the islands to play just 48 hours later. Narrowing the stats down to conference games only, Hawaii ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. They have a points per possession margin of +13 per 100 possessions and UC San Diego has a negative PPP margin per 100 possessions. The one thing that can cause Hawaii’s offense issues are defensive teams that create a high percentage of turnovers. The Tritons are not that team as they rank dead last in the Big West at creating turnovers. UCSD doesn’t get to the FT line very often and relies heavily on making 3 pointers which will be an issue here vs a UH defense that ranks 3rd in the nation allowing just 27% shooting from beyond the arc. Hawaii has been waiting for this rematch and they are rested and ready to go. Rainbows by double digits.