ASA TOP PLAY ON 10*: #117/118 UNDER 67 Marshall vs North Texas, Friday 7 PM ET - Our computer simulators are predicting 60 or less points in this Conference USA showdown. If we do a quick comparison, we see North Texas recently played a similar team to Marshall in LA Tech a few weeks ago and Vegas had set a number of 64.5. That game stayed below the Total with just 41-points scored. Marshall also played a team that resembles UNT in Middle Tennessee State which finished with 62-Total points and Under 66. The Mean Green are coming off a very high scoring game against SEC Missouri but most of their yardage and points came in garbage time after they were down 41-14. That game also featured an uncharacteristic number of big plays with a 40-yard INT for a TD and 3 TD’s of 50+ yards. Marshall is coming off a low scoring affair against Old Dominion which was tied at 13 points apiece prior to overtime. The Herd rely on a passing attack that is 6th in the nation in passing yards per game at 358 but the Mean Green rank 50th in passing yards allowed per game. Not to mention, UNT has faced 4 offenses this year that rank 36th or better in passing which makes their defensive numbers even more impressive. We know North Texas will want to exploit the Herd’s rushing defense that allows over 212RYPG this year which ranks them 119th in the country. North Texas is averaging over 200RYPG on the season and should have success on the ground here. UNT on a 4-1 Under run while Marshall 4-0 Under their last four Conference USA games. Bet Under here.

#181 ASA PLAY ON 8* Purdue +12 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We see no way the Hawkeyes have their complete focus for this game. They are coming off a top 10 match up vs Penn State in what was a wild Saturday in Iowa City. We had some friends in the stands for that game and they said the energy from the crowd was off the charts. Iowa was down 17-3 in the game when PSU lost their QB Clifford for the rest of the game with an injury. From that point on, with 12:30 to go in the 2nd quarter, the Penn State offense gained a total of 50 yards. Back up QB Roberson, who had 8 career pass attempts entering the game, was overwhelmed by Iowa’s defense and completed just 7 passes. Even with that Iowa was barely able to squeak out a 23-20 win. Now after that game and with big time rival Wisconsin on deck, the Hawkeyes will be flat here. Purdue is solid this season and they are coming off a bye. They are coming off a 20-13 loss to Minnesota in a game they outgained the Gophers by 150 yards. The Boilers have outgained every opponent they’ve faced this year including their game @ Notre Dame. Their defense is solid ranking 16th nationally allowing just 300 YPG on 4.8 YPP. They should be able to stay in this game facing an Iowa offense that ranks 110th nationally putting up only 317 YPG. Iowa’s YPP differential is nothing to write home about at +0.6 YPP but they’ve been gifted with a ridiculous +18 TO margin in just 6 games! That includes +3 last week vs PSU with their back up QB and again they still only won by a FG. If Purdue can limit turnovers, they’ll have a shot to pull the upset here. Iowa’s offense isn’t good enough to pull away from a solid defense off a bye week. This has been a close series with the last 3 meetings being decided by a total of 12 points. Dangerous spot here for the Hawkeyes and we’ll take the underdog.

#163 ASA PLAY ON 8* Fresno State -3.5 over Wyoming, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Fresno comes in off a bye week and a loss @ Hawaii the previous week. That 17-14 setback was very misleading with FSU outgaining Hawaii by 160 yards. Bulldog top notch QB Haener had perhaps the worst game of his career throwing 4 interceptions in that game all inside the Hawaii 15 yard line! Basically taking away 4 scoring chances and they still only lost by a FG. For the season he had completed 70% of his passes for over 2,200 yards and 18 TD’s with just 2 total picks in his other games. Just an aberration and a motivating one at that. Fresno’s other loss this season came @ Oregon by 7 in a game they outgained the Ducks. They also outgained UCLA by 174 yards in a win on the Bruins home field. This team is very good, coming off a bye and a tough loss which sets up nicely. Wyoming lost @ Air Force last week. The Cowboys are outgaining their opponents by only 13 YPG despite playing a very easy schedule that includes Montana State, Northern Illinois, UConn, and Ball State. It’s not as if the Cowboys are rolling over this suspect competition as they struggled to beat FCS Montana State by 3 points and UConn, the lowest ranked team in FBS, by 2 points. That’s the same UConn team that Fresno beat 45-0 this season. The Wyoming defense was preparing for the option attack of Air Force last week and now they have to completely switch gears facing a top notch passing attack this week. Fresno ranks 3rd nationally averaging 380 YPG through the air and the 4 FBS teams that the Cowboys have faced thus far rank 128, 124, 120, and 78 in passing offense. This will be a really tough adjustment for Wyoming. We like the better team, off a bye, off a loss, and they’ve played the much tougher slate (outplayed 2 Pac 12 teams as we mentioned above). Take Fresno.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia -21.5 over Kentucky, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - UGA has allowed 2 TD’s the entire season – just 5.5 PPG given up. Kentucky offense isn’t great throwing the ball, they rely on the run and no way they get that done here vs UGA defensive front (allows 2 YPC). UGA will be motivated here as UK is undefeated and ranked 11th – they shouldn’t be – Wildcats have already faced 2 of the 3 worst teams in the SEC (Mizzou & South Carolina) and won those games by 7 points & 6 points. Since season opener vs Clemson (10-3 final) the Dawgs offense has scored an average of 46 PPG and they have not scored less than 34. With a defense that has allowed 2 TD’s ALL YEAR, that means they are blowing out everyone. UGA is covering by an average of 15 PPG (#1 in the country) and their scoring margin is +34 PPG which is #1 nationally. This is just 2nd road game for UK and they struggled for a 16-10 win @ South Carolina in their other road tilt. Two weeks ago UGA played host to then undefeated and #8 ranked Arkansas who was looking great and scoring lots of points averaging 35 PPG entering the game – UGA won 37-0 and held Arkansas to 162 total yards. Arkansas offense is better than Kentucky’s and we see a similar result in this game. Just like Arky, the Wildcats might not score in this game. UGA rolls to another big win and cover.

#143 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Nebraska -4 over Minnesota, Saturday at 12 PM ET - We were on the Huskers last week and wound up with a push as they lost by 3 to Michigan. Nebraska fumbled in their own territory late in that game setting up the Wolverines for the game winning kick. Nebraska has been tested as much as any team in the country over the past month. They have faced three top 10 teams and stood toe to toe with all of them. They lost at Oklahoma by a TD yet outgained the Sooners on a YPP basis. A week later they traveled to undefeated Michigan State and lost in OT despite outgaining the Spartans by 186 yards! Then last week their close loss to Michigan. Those 3 teams are a combined 18-0 and Nebraska was close to winning each of those games. The only team they’ve faced in the last month that wasn’t in the top 10 was Northwestern and they beat the Wildcats 56-7. Minnesota, on the other hand, has been struggling with lower tier opponents. Their last 4 games they almost lost at home to Miami OH, won @ Colorado, lost at home to Bowling Green, and then beat Purdue but were outgained by 150 yards. The first 3 teams listed rank 104, 105, and 144 in College Football Sagarin ratings. Bowling Green, who beat Minnesota in Minneapolis, just lost at home by 15 points to an Akron team that had a record of 1-26 their last 27 games! The Gophers rely heavily on their ground game and they are now down to their 3rd string RB after losing starter Ibrahim in the season opener and then back up Potts was lost for the season in their most recent game vs Purdue. Their offense has put up an average of just 15 PPG and 270 YPG over their last 2 games. Nebraska’s offense is humming against top notch competition averaging over 500 YPG in their last 6 games. We see no way Minnesota will be able to keep up here. They take a huge step up in competition and if they are struggling to beat middle of the pack MAC teams at home, they’re in trouble here. The Huskers are +1.8 YPP differential on the season while Minnesota is just +0.2 YPP despite the difference in their schedule strength. Nebraska is MUCH better than their record and we see a double digit win on Saturday. Lay the small number with the Huskers.