Sean Murphy Sean Murphy
Sean puts his 46-32-3 NFL record to the test with a big card, keyed by THREE 10* TOP RATED big ticket releases on Sunday; don't miss out!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Colts vs Cowboys
Colts
+10½ -110 at circa
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.

The Colts just got upset at home against the Steelers on Monday Night Football and I think the knee-jerk reaction from most is to fade them again on a short week on the road against the mighty Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas bettors certainly felt wronged thanks to the Giants 'meaningless' touchdown in the final seconds on Thanksgiving, ultimately giving New York the ATS cover. Keep in mind, Indianapolis had gone a perfect 2-0 ATS in controversial coaching hire's first two games prior to Monday's setback. It's not as if the Colts are bereft of talent and I believe they have the personnel in place to effectively shorten this game - precisely what you want from an underdog side catching double-digits on the road. For the Cowboys, I can't help but feel they've reached a lull in their schedule with this game followed by a home date with the lowly Texans and a trip to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Prior to this, the 'Boys had gone up against the Packers and Vikings on the road and the division-rival Giants on Thanksgiving over a three-game stretch. Noting that Dallas is just 9-12 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 25 points or more in four consecutive games while the Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last eight contests off an outright loss as a favorite, we'll confidently back Indy here. Take Indianapolis (8*).

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Dec 04, 2022
Senegal vs England
Draw
+300 at Ace
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on the 'draw' between Senegal and England at 2 pm et on Sunday.

I think there's a good chance we see this one go to penalties but will simply call for the 'draw' in the first 90 minutes as there's little to choose between these two sides. England has impressed at times through the Group Stage of this tournament but it's not as if it enters on an extended run, having only gone undefeated in its last four matches. Senegal should enter with confidence knowing that it has been 'first to score' in eight of its last nine contests, having suffered just one defeat in its last six matches across all competitions. There's every reason for this to be a cagey affair with neither squad willing to give an inch. I just don't think this one is as straight-forward as most believe as Senegal has always proven to be a 'tough out' and will have the element of surprise working in its favor here, with England seeing it for the first time. Note that the Three Lions have been all square after 90 minutes in four of their last eight contests overall. Take the draw (8*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Dolphins vs 49ers
Dolphins
+5 -110 at circa
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on Miami plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

I like backing teams in games they have 'circled' and I certainly believe this one fits the bill for the Dolphins. Head coach Mike McDaniel will be facing his former coaching mate in Kyle Shanahan and I look for him to throw everything he has at him on Sunday afternoon. The Dolphins offense continues to exceed expectations under the guidance of McDaniel and while the 49ers are coming off a shutout victory last week, that came against a beat up Saints squad that has struggled all season long. This is a much different situation and I look for the Fins offense to 'find a way'. San Francisco is suddenly dealing with a cluster of key injuries on the offensive side of the football with RB Christian McCaffrey banged up and WR Deebo Samuel nowhere near 100% healthy and in fact likely to miss this game on Sunday. There's always going to be a ceiling for this offense with QB Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. That same ceiling simply doesn't exist with the Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins offense. I'm anticipating a field goal game at worse, but hopefully we get the outright victory from the visiting Dolphins. Take Miami.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Seahawks vs Rams
OVER 41 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.

We won with the 'over' in the Seahawks overtime loss to the Raiders last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play as they hit the road to face the down-trodden Rams on Sunday in Los Angeles. I'm not one bit worried about the Seahawks offense. They should go off against a Rams defense that is now missing all-world DT Aaron Donald among others. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will give the start to QB John Wolford - his first start since Week 10 against Arizona. Head coach Sean McVay has indicated that Wolford gives them a better chance to 'run their offense' given his experience over rookie Bryce Perkins, who was largely ineffective against the Chiefs last week. I believe 'running their offense' will involve throwing the football more, noting that the Rams had 37 pass attempts in Wolford's last start. The Seahawks defense can certainly be had, as we saw in last week's shootout loss against the Raiders. Considering we saw totals of 47.5 and 53.5 when the Seahawks and Rams matched up last year, I believe this total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (8*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Commanders vs Giants
Giants
+2½ -105 at circa
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

NFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.

The Commanders have won three games in a row to climb into the playoff conversation in the NFC. I expect a letdown here, however, as they hit the road to face the Giants on Sunday. Washington has benefited from a 7-3 turnover margin in its favor over its last three contests. Here, I can't help but feel we'll see the Giants wreak havoc defensively against Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke, who I do feel has been walking the thin line between success and failure over the last few games. Getting back Evan Neal on the offensive line should pay immediate dividends for Giants RB Saquon Barkley, who has admittedly struggled in recent weeks. Once again, not much will be asked of QB Daniel Jones. The hope here is that he's tasked with playing with a lead rather than from behind as we saw last week against Dallas. Note that Washington is a long-term loser in the role of favorite, going 70-103 ATS. Meanwhile, New York has delivered the cash 11 of the last 13 times it has come off a Thursday game, as is the case here. Take New York (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Jets vs Vikings
UNDER 44½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Free

Sunday NFL Free play. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams were involved in games that went 'over' the total last week and I believe that is leading to an inflated total as they match up in Minnesota on Sunday. The Jets offense got a big boost from backup QB Mike White last Sunday. That was against a down-trodden Bears defense, however. Here, White will be facing a tougher challenge against a Vikings defense playing on an extended week of rest after playing last on Thanksgiving Night. On the flip side, the Vikes offense should be in tough here, dealing with injuries on the offensive line and in line for some regression after scoring 33 points against the Patriots last week. Interestingly, the Vikes have averaged just 19.6 points per game the last 45 times they've played at home following a contest where both teams scored 24 or more points, as is the case here. The 'under' is 26-13 the last 39 times Minnesota has played at home after winning six or seven of its last eight games, which is the situation on Sunday. Take the under.

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Packers vs Bears
Packers
-4 -110 at SC Consensus
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.

As bad as things have gone for the Packers this season, they can take solace in the fact that they're still better than the Bears, and by a wide margin in my opinion. Green Bay draws Chicago in a smash spot here. The Bears might have QB Justin Fields back but how effective he can be remains to be seen. His supporting cast should be downgraded with WR Darnell Mooney now sidelined. The Packers figure to control proceedings from the get-go with an emerging offense led by WR Christian Watson, who is finally evolving into a downfield threat. RB Aaron Jones is in line for a massive bounce-back performance here against a Bears defense that can't stop, or even slow opposing ground attacks since dealing away much of its talent prior to the trade deadline. There haven't been a lot of feel-good moments for Packers fans this season but this will be one of them. Take Green Bay (8*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Browns vs Texans
Texans
+8 -110 at William Hill
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

AFC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This is a game that the Texans have likely been waiting for just as long as the Browns have as Cleveland gives former-Texan Deshaun Watson his long-awaited first start with his new team following a long suspension. This is a prime letdown spot for Cleveland after it pulled out an improbable 23-17 overtime win over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers last Sunday. I'm not ready to start believing in this 4-7 team just yet, however, noting they had lost consecutive games by a combined margin of 30 points prior to that upset victory. Cleveland has won just once on the road this season and that victory came by only two points in Carolina way back in Week 1. Here, the Browns are laying more than a touchdown. Houston is riding a season-high six-game losing streak and has dropped the cash in a season-high three consecutive games as well. I do feel that QB Kyle Allen gives them a better chance to win than Davis Mills at this point. The reality is the offense should run through RB Dameon Pierce and he figures to eat against a Browns defense that has struggled mightily against the run this season. Note that this is also a 'revenge game' for Houston after it dropped a 31-21 decision in Cleveland last year. There are very few spots where I would recommend backing the Texans the rest of the way, but this just happens to be one of them. Take Houston (10*).

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 04, 2022
Browns vs Texans
OVER 46½ -108 Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Top Premium

AFC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.

This game has shootout potential as the Texans look to avenge last year's 31-21 loss to the Browns. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in last year's meeting but I don't believe the move is warranted. It has everything to do with the fact that the Texans have been involved in a string of relatively low-scoring games with the 'under' cashing in each of their last three contests. The Browns posted an 'under' result last week as well as they pulled out a 23-17 overtime win over the Bucs. Here, Cleveland's offense figures to get a boost from the return of QB Deshaun Watson. While Watson is dealing with returning from a long layoff, he draws an ideal matchup against a Texans defense that has seen things go from bad to worse. Houston checks in having allowed 29, 24, 23 and 30 points over its last four games, getting ethered by both the pass and the run. The Browns held up alright defensively on paper last week against the Bucs, but this is still a vulnerable unit that doesn't do anything particularly well. The Texans will give QB Kyle Allen another start in place of an ineffective Davis Mills. Allen was at least in sync with WR Nico Collins last Sunday, hitting him on six of nine targets. WR Brandin Cooks is expected to miss this game but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's been virtually invisible this season. RB Dameon Pierce remains the focal point of the Texans offense and he should bounce back with a full workload after being taken out of the gameplan thanks to Houston trailing big early last week in Miami. The Browns have been touched up for 4.8 yards per rush attempt this season. Take the over (10*).

SERVICE BIO

Sean Murphy made his professional debut as lead handicapper for Pat Miller Sports in 2003, continuing on with The Miller Group from 2006 through 2009.  Sean broke away to found his own sports service in September 2009 and has now delivered 12 of 17 winning NFL seasons.  Sean’s also cashed big in NCAA Football, as he’s won each of the last 3 seasons, recording wins with 57% of his overall bets.  A key factor in Sean’s success is his knack for Over/Unders, which is no surprise given Sean’s reputation as a ‘numbers guru.’  Indeed, Sean’s knack for handling numbers is deep-rooted.  He owns a business degree, with a major in finance, and is a member of the prestigious Beta Gamma Sigma honor society for business students and scholars.     Although Sean took a circuitous route to become a professional handicapper, sports betting has been a part of his life for as long as he can remember.  In fact, he still fondly recalls his first successful venture into sports betting – a winning three-game NFL ‘Pro-Line’ parlay (offered by the Canadian lottery) when he was just 12 years old.  Sean — along with the rest of his 7th grade class — was hooked.  His passion for sports is unmatched.  The phrase “find something you love to do and you’ll never ‘work’ a day in your life” is Murph's mantra.  Sean's love for numbers, combined with his passion for sports, makes a career in sports handicapping the perfect fit.     After building The Miller Group from the ground up, and turning it into one of America’s most respected handicapping services, Sean has continued to prosper as an independent, thanks to an honest approach and strong belief in delivering value to the customer.  Sean’s selections are based on his extensive knowledge of the game, and his approach is both situational and statistical.  He prides himself on going against the majority and thinking outside the box, and his unique analysis keeps his clients coming back.  When you purchase one of Sean’s selections, you can always count on insightful and expert information to back it up.  Sean rates all of his plays from 8* to 10* with free plays qualifying as 8* releases, and the majority of his selections warranting a 10* designation.  As you would expect, the higher the rating, the stronger the play.