Alex Smart Alex Smart
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Alex Smart Sports- NBA Sharp Money Late Steam ( Total)

I have isolated some must play NBA Sharp TOTALS action from Saturdays rotational schedule. Get the pro hoops info the books do not want you to have. Tests 4-1 80% Run and a 103-57 64%  longterm NBA Totals run!  Features: Boston Celtics @ Portland Blazers. Tips after 10:10 pm et

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I have isolated FIVE solid investment options from Sundays NFL rotational schedule. Features: Four Sides/1 Totals banger. Get the pro gridiron info the books do not want you to have. Tests 41-28 60% overall NFL run dating back to last season including a current 6-2 75% Totals conversion rate. Kick off after 1 pm et 

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NCAA-F SUBSCRIPTIONS
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 03, 2021
Golden Knights vs Coyotes
Golden Knights
-208 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

NHL road teams against the money line (VEGAS) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, with a winning record in the first half of the season are 35-9 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 03, 2021
Pelicans vs Mavs
Pelicans
+7½ -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Mavericks have not faired well at home from a betting backers perspective going  3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. They did win last time out but that has consistently not be a recipe for success as   they are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win. Yes, the Mavs really put a beat down the Pelicans last on Wednesday night  but Im betting they wont be able to repeat that performance  after Dallas shot a franchise-record 68.7 percent from the floor  in that last game. A Mavericks  Regression to the mean gives the Pelicans an edge on this line.   DALLAS is 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. DALLAS is 6-16 ATS  when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home favorites (DALLAS) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 9-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pelicans to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 03, 2021
Clippers vs Lakers
Clippers
+2 -110 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Clippers are in a funk after having lost three games in a row. However, this tilt vs their LA rivals will have them fully awake and ready to compete . I know LeBron James is back for the Lakers, but he's starting to show his age of late and is not the game changer he used to be. 

 Lakers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 home games. Lakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Lakers are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite. LA LAKERS are 2-14 ATS  after allowing 95 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Lakers are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win. Lakers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordL.

CLIPPERS are 16-3 ATS  in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.

.LA CLIPPERS is 6-1 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons

NBA Road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 26-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 84% conversion rate for bettors.

LA Clippers to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 03, 2021
Cavs vs Wizards
Wizards
-3½ +101 at pinnacle
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

Washington  is now one of the top teams in the East, and must be respected at home as short favorites. The Wizards snapped Cleveland’s four game win streak back at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse back on November 10, and Im betting they stop their current run at 3 games in this spot play. 

Washington has won the L/4 meetings between these sides and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here this evening. Cavaliers are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. 

Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

WASHINGTON is 16-3 ATS  after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. 

NBA Underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 15-45 ATS L/25 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Washington to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 03, 2021
Heat vs Pacers
Heat
+5½ -105 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Miami owns the 4th best ppg defense in the league and 4th best SRS , as compared to Indiana that owns the 14th ranked ppg defense and 10th ranked SRS. Both sides are struggling but from a matchup data comparison the superior side is the Heat even  with Jimmy Butler out. Take the points. 

SRS - Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average

NBA Road teams (MIAMI) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite are 45-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

Play on Miami to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Dec 03, 2021
Suns vs Warriors
Warriors
-7 -109 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 The Warriors have revenge on board for a loss earlier this week to the Suns and will be primed to lay down a beating here in front of their own fans . Shutting Curry down two games in a row is far fetched and with the Warriors playing their best ball at home as is evident by going    11-1 SU at home this season, and 10-2 ATS  Im betting on them covering. 

GOLDEN STATE is 11-0 ATS  after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average offensive teams (108-114 PPG), after a combined score of 205 points or less 2 straight games are 31-1 L/25 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11 .

Play on the Golden State Warriors to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 03, 2021
St. Peter's vs Quinnipiac
UNDER 136 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 03, 2021
Fairfield vs Canisius
Fairfield
+1½ -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  


CANISIUS is 1-11 ATS  as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. CFB Home teams as a favorite or pick (CANISIUS) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, with four starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 8-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Fairfield to cover 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 03, 2021
Eastern Washington vs Montana
Eastern Washington
+3 -110 at SC Consensus
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

UM is giving up just 13 points per game and are getting alot of respect from the lines-makers , (to much in my betting opinion) even here on their own field.  EWU is scoring 44.2 points, and in the first meeting between these teams blitzed UM for four plays of 35 or more yards , while Montanas 10 other opponents combined for three plays of more than 35 yards. EWU won that battle, by a 34-28 count and once again matchup well here behind an explosive offense that scored and 51 Red Zone TDs and  has shown it can have its way with this strong defense. Key to game:Last week, EWU ran for 129 yards against a Northern Iowa defense that was allowing just 83.3 yards per game on the ground and in their first meeting vs Montana went over 100 yards rushing, (one of only two teams to achieve that vs the Grizzlies this season) Im betting on them breaching the century mark here on the ground which will once again open up their explosive air attack which in turn will be the ultimate difference maker. 

Play on Eastern Washington to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 03, 2021
Oregon vs Utah
UNDER 58 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Pac-12 Championship Game - Allegiant Stadium - Paradise, NV

When these teams played earlier this season, Utah owned the Ducks winning 38-7 and completely shut them down offensively and Im betting they will put their offense on mute again, in a tilt I project to have an output in the lower to mid 50s giving us value on this offered number. 

OREGON is 20-8  L/28 UNDER revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more . Under is 10-2 in Ducks last 12 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games as an underdog.

UTAH is 12-2 UNDER  in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games. Whittingham is 7-0 UNDER after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 47.1 ppg. 

CFB teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UTAH) - outrushing their opponents by 1.25 or more yards/carry on the season, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 4 straight games are 30-9  UNDER. L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate.

CFB team against the total (OREGON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, a top-level team (80% or more ) playing a team with a winning record are  60-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the UNDER 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Miami-OH vs Indiana State
OVER 148½ -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

No comment

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
UAB  vs St. Louis
UAB 
+2 -115 at BetVegas
Play Type: Premium

No comment

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Marquette vs Wisconsin
Wisconsin
-6½ -115 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 04, 2021
Maple Leafs vs Wild
UNDER 6 -119
Play Type: Premium

These teams have taken part in some fairly high scoring games of late, but from a matchup perspective my projections estimate a lower scoring affair. 

The UNDER has gone 13-4 in the Leafs last 17 road games after scoring five goals or more in their previous contest, with a combined average of 5.3 gpg. TORONTO is 23-8 UNDER  in road games after a win by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 gpg scored. 

  The  Wild, have gone under 10 of their last 12 games as hosts  when coming off two or more victories by three goals or more, with a combined average of 4 gpg going on the board.TORONTO is 10-3 UNDER (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.9 gpg scored. 

NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (TORONTO) - top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 0.65+ goals/game, after 2 straight blowout wins by 3 goals or more are 53-22 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 71% conversion rate.

NHL  team against the total (MINNESOTA) - after 3 straight wins by 2 goals or more against opponent after scoring 3 goals or more in 2 straight games are 201-127 UNDER L/25 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Dec 04, 2021
Islanders vs Red Wings
Islanders
-109 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

The Islanders have lost 9 straight games, thanks in part to a depleted injury and covid laden line up. The Isles are  getting healthier and are getting more desperate by the day as victories and some upward momentum are extremely important at this juncture of the season. With that said Im betting on the surprising demise of the Islanders to at last for tonight take a upward turn vs a young Motown team they matchup well against .Red Wings are 13-38 in their last 51 vs. Metropolitan.Red Wings are 14-43 in their last 57 vs. Eastern Conference.Islanders are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Play on the NY Islanders to win 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Portland State vs Weber State
Portland State
+15½ -110 at SC Consensus
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Louisiana Tech vs Santa Clara
Louisiana Tech
+2½ -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Memphis vs Ole Miss
Ole Miss
+1 -110 at SC Consensus
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Georgia State vs Mercer
Mercer
+2 -110 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Duquesne vs Marshall
Duquesne
+9 -107 at linepros
Play Type: Premium

 My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides  offerings from the sports  books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies  are all taken into consideration as is current form  and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Dec 04, 2021
Buffalo vs St Bonaventure
Buffalo
+3 -113 at linepros
Tie
Play Type: Premium

No comment

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 04, 2021
Iowa vs Michigan
Iowa
+11 -110 at linepros
Play Type: Premium

Im betting on. a huge emotional  letdown from Michigan this week after defeating Ohio State last time out. The Wolverines after a huge win and celebration are now vulnerable vs a less talented but extremely cohesive team that is coached by one of football most under rated HCs Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa are 12-3-2 ATS  vs .850  or better conf opposition. 

Michigan 1-5 ATS vs .800 or better  conference  opposition. 

CFB favorite of 6 plus points with a superior record than its opp in its conference championship game – if coming off an ATS win of 15 or more points and facing an .800 or less foe are just 1-10 ATS L/25 seasons.

Play on Iowa to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 04, 2021
Houston vs Cincinnati
Cincinnati
-10 -120 at linepros
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

  Bearcats  are undefeated on the season  and have won 26 straight home games at Nippert Stadium, and stud QB Desmond Ridder has never lost a tilt on his home field and nothing Im betting will change today against Houston. The Bearcats are an elite team, and when motivated can easily smash a team like Houston. the Bearcats motivation will come from the fact that they will be the first power 5 team to go to the college football play offs with a win here today, and Im betting they do it in conclusive fashion.  Hey I know how well Houston has played but they are in over their heads here this Saturday. 

Cincinnati is 5-0  ATS in their L/5 games vs .900 or better opposition. Houston is just 1-6 SU/ATS  L/7 visits here . CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing  7.5 or less  yards per return over the last 2 seasons.

HOUSTON is 1-10 ATS L/11 in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5  or less yards per return. 

CFB home team (CINCINNATI) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 32-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.\

CFB Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 35 points or more in a win over a conference rival, when playing on a Saturday are 28-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cincinnati to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 04, 2021
Baylor vs Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
-5½ -106 at pinnacle
Lost
$106.0
Play Type: Premium

Big-12 Championship Game - AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Oklahoma State took out Oklahoma last week, and now have a huge amount of confidence entering this game against the Baylor Bears. Oklahoma State (11-1) is in good position to make the College Football Playoff with a victory and we should find them very motivated in crunch time.

Note:Cowboys are 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS laying points in this series and in their current top tier defensive form ranking No.3 in the nation in D allowing just 16.4 ppg . With that said, Im betting they have an edge here today of a TD or less making this a viable wagering opportunity with the favorite. 

Oklahoma State is 6-1 ATS with single-digit spreads this season. Cowboys are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. .Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.

OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS  in road games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 ATS against conference opponents this season. Gundy is 12-4 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of OKLAHOMA ST.

Play on Oklahoma State to cover 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 04, 2021
Appalachian State vs UL-Lafayette
UL-Lafayette
+3 -110 at Mirage
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

SBC Championship Game

Lafayette won the only meeting between these teams this season, 41-13 and App State despite of wanting revenge do not matchup well vs Cajuns. Note: Lafayette is 6-1 ATS L/7 in conference action at home as a dog vs a team they beat in their previous meeting.

Lafayette HC Napier who leaves for Gainesville after this tilt  is   11-5 ATS L/16 as a dog, including 7-1 ATS when coming off consecutive wins .

APPALACHIAN ST is 2-10 ATS  after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins 

CFB home team vs. the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) - after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins against opponent after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins are 33-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play on Lafayette to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Dec 04, 2021
Utah State vs San Diego State
San Diego State
-3½ -109 at pinnacle
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

The Aztecs  own the 2nd best ground defense in the nation  and they are dangerous  smash and grab specialists  forcing takeaways. The Aztecs are tough as nails  on defense  overall ranking  No. 13 in the nation and multi dimensional on offense when they need to be as they proved vs Boise State, a Im betting Utah State will have issues with this type of side.  Look for Utah State to become one dimensional on offense,  as moving the chains on the ground will be difficult and for a muted effort from them here today against this strong Aztec stopping units . 

CFB Road underdogs of +155 to +300 vs. the money line (UTAH ST) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 1-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg which qualify on this ATS line offering. 

Play on San Diego State to cover 

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 22 years.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigious event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.    

I have been an NBA World Champion with 9 winning seasons the last 11 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.