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Stephen Nover |
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I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NFL | Jan 19, 2025 Ravens vs Bills |
UNDER 51½ -108 |
Lost $108.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Most are predicting a high scoring game between the Ravens and Bills. Understandable given the MVP-caliber seasons Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have had, perhaps the finest of their great careers. I see this game differently. Touchdowns are not going to come so easily. Let's start with the problems the Ravens may encounter. Only once have the Ravens met a top-10 defense outdoors. That was against the Steelers and they scored a season-low 16 points. The wind chill factor for this matchup is expected to be in the low teens to single digits with possible snow showers. Buffalo's defense is top-12 caliber and opportunistic with 16 takeaways, which ranked seventh in the league. True, the Ravens buried the Bills, 35-10, when they hosted them in Week 4. The temperature was 68 degrees in that game. The Bills were missing three important defensive players - linebackers Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson. All three are expected to play here. Milano, slowed by injuries much of the season, looked like his All-Pro self against the Broncos last week. Baltimore could be minus its top wide receiver, Zay Flowers. He's been out with a knee injury. Sean McDermott is a sharp defensive coach. Expect the Bills to fully concentrate on stopping Derrick Henry. I'm not convinced Jackson can be dominant in this type of weather condition if he has to carry the Ravens' offense, especially if he doesn't have his speed guy and zone-breaker, Flowers. Turning to Buffalo's offense. It had its worst game of the season against the Ravens being held to a season-low in points with 10 and yards with 236. Allen didn't have a passing or rushing touchdown for the only time this season. He was sacked a season-high three times. What has to be scary for the Bills is that the Ravens' defense has gotten much better since that late September game. Baltimore has given up an average of 11.5 points in its last five games. This span includes two games against the Steelers and holding the Texans scoreless on offense. The Ravens rank No. 1 against the run. Aside from dual-threat Allen, the Bills don't have a skill position player of the star variety. |
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NFL | Jan 19, 2025 Rams vs Eagles |
Eagles -5½ -115 at Bovada |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Jan 20, 2025 Pistons vs Rockets |
UNDER 223½ -110 | |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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Only three teams give up fewer points per game than the Rockets, who hold opponents to an average of 107.9. Houston also ranks third in defensive field goal percentage. The Pistons rank in the middle in scoring defense. However, their defensive efficiency rating shoots up to sixth going by just the last 10 games. This is a very early start time because of Martin Luther King Day. That's a plus, too, for the Under. |
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SERVICE BIO |
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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons. |
