First and foremost, the environment this game is being played in favors a lower-scoring affair. This game takes place at PNC Park with temps in the 64-65 degree range and no significant precipitation or wind expected. That’s no recipe for explosive offensive games.

Pittsburgh’s starter, Braxton Ashcraft, profiles as a strong Under candidate in his own right. He comes into this game with a record of 2-2 and an ERA and WHIP of 2.77 and 1.05, respectively. The guy has been excellent at preventing runs this season and faces a Phillies lineup that still ranks in the bottom third of the league in runs per game. If anybody can set the tone for Pittsburgh it’ll be Ashcraft.

Aaron Nola may have a mark of 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, but he’s still a seasoned veteran who can make adjustments on the fly. Nola is looking to rediscover his old form. Not only that, but NOLA gets to start in one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh does have the ability to hit, but they are more “jam” guys than pure power guys so if Nola can limit the free passes and keep the ball in the park Philadelphia should be able to hang around without the ball bouncing all over the yard.

Philadelphia’s last two wins came against Boston by scores of 2-1 and 3-1. Pitching and timely hitting by Kyle Schwarber were what won those games for the Phillies. If Philadelphia pitches like that and limits Pittsburgh in the early innings they could easily keep this one tight and under the total.

Granted, Pittsburgh just came off of a 7-2 win against Colorado but Colorado’s starter only threw 2 innings and the Pirates were able to work into their bullpen early. Pittsburgh will not have that luxury against Philadelphia. If Nola can give Philly five solid innings the Pirates may have to play small ball in order to manufacture runs.

The OVER/UNDER lean will come down to whether or not Kyle Schwarber can go yard with men on base. He is absolutely smoking the baseball right now, but if Ashcraft can limit baserunners in front of him and Nola doesn’t implode the Phillies have a chance to replicate their last two games against Boston and keep this one UNDER pitched battle where the starting matchups play big and both bullpens are leaned on late.

Jim's Play: 901. Phillies/ Pirates UNDER 

Home field and the market are reasons enough to back the Cleveland Guardians to beat the Cincinnati Reds on Friday. Weather won’t be a factor either, as temperatures are going to be around 65 degrees with zero percent chance of rain and mild winds.

Tanner Bibee gets the start for Cleveland, while Andrew Abbott toes the rubber for Cincinnati. Bibee is 0-5 on the year, but his 4.17 ERA isn’t atrocious and he’s still an arm capable of pitching Cleveland into the middle innings if he avoids disaster. Abbott comes into this one at 4.47 ERA, so pitching isn’t a realm where Cincinnati holds a clear advantage. If two starters are going to throw around three runs apiece, I’m taking the home team with the deeper bullpen.

Yes, Cincinnati lit up Washington 15-1 on Thursday, but big wins can often lead to hangover games. The Reds were riding an 0-10-1 slump heading into that contest, so there wasn’t much momentum to build on even if they plated 15 runs. Washington was forced to bring in a position player to pitch in the seventh inning, and JJ Bleday went deep twice and drove in six runs off position players and extra pitchers. Cleveland will take on Cincinnati coming off one massive outburst, not exactly a balanced team clicking on all cylinders.

The Guardians will look to force Abbott into high pitch counts early and tap into Cincinnati’s bullpen. Cleveland’s best chance to win comes with traffic on the bases, putting the ball in play, swiping extra bases and letting José Ramírez or Josh Naylor-type bats drive in runs. Cleveland’s offense can force Cincinnati’s relievers to throw more pitches per inning after the Reds got to relax during Thursday’s win. Against a bullpen that’s yet to prove it can handle traffic, Cleveland can take advantage and play fast, careful baseball.

This could also be a rebound game for Bibee, who has been on the wrong end of some brutal losses despite keeping his team in games. Cleveland’s offense should muster enough support at some point, and Friday night in front of a homer-friendly crowd could be it. If Bibee keeps Elly De La Cruz and Cincinnati’s running game off base, Cleveland can dictate pace and feed a lead to its bullpen for a Guardians home victory.

Jim's Play: 914. Guardians 

The White Sox have won five straight games entering Friday’s Crosstown matchup with the Cubs, and Thursday’s 6-2 victory over Kansas City pushed Chicago over .500 at 22-21 for the first time since Opening Day of the 2023 season. That clearly is a huge confidence boost for a team that has been playing its best baseball of the year.

Randal Grichuk drove in four runs Thursday, but the Sox really are getting production from all over the lineup. The Cubs have the better record, but they are scratching out wins lately, so a repeat of Thursday’s offensive output might be enough for Chicago’s South Side squad to pull off the upset.

We say “might” because neither pitching matchup favors either squad as heavily as one might think based on their records. Chicago Cubs starter Edward Cabrera will oppose White Sox starter Sean Burke on Friday. One updated betting preview shows Cabrera with a 3.89 ERA and Burke sporting a 3.68 ERA heading into Friday, meaning Chicago’s home team actually has the slight edge in terms of surface numbers.

Burke keeps the ball in the yard and doesn’t issue too many free passes, and the White Sox can control the first half of this game.

 If you take the White Sox here in a rivalry game while they are playing their best ball and getting plus money at home, the expected value sits with the South Siders.  If anything, the White Sox need to strike early against Cabrera. Chicago is hitting timely baseball during this five-game winning streak, tacking on runs late and protecting leads with much improved pitching.

Should Burke provide five quality innings and White Sox hitters continue to swing a hot bat like they did Thursday against Kansas City, Chicago should extend this winning streak and take Game 1 against their North Side rivals.

Jim's Play: 920. White Sox 

First reason the Pistons/Cavaliers game Friday hits the OVER is the total itself. The number opened around 209.5 to 210 and that is NOT big enough for a series that has started leaning into its groove offensively. Game 5 was 117-113 in OT, but even before overtime Detroit and Cleveland were scoring enough to get into the 200s.

Cleveland’s offense has gotten into much better rhythm after falling into an 0-2 hole in the series. They have now won 3 straight games and the main reason is Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have figured out how to run the half-court. Harden hit for 30 on Friday and Mitchell continues to be that downhill scorer who forces Detroit into fouls, rotations and late closeouts. When Cleveland’s 2 lead guards are both creating, the Cavs are going to be hard to keep out of the 110s.

Detroit is capable of hitting their number as well. Cunningham hit for 39 points and they’ll have plenty of motivation playing with their season on the line. Playing with that much motivation usually leads to starter’s playing heavy minutes, attacking the rim with more urgency and little patience if they fall behind. Detroit has enough shot creators in Cunningham, Tobias Harris and the supporting guards to pressure Cleveland’s defense, especially if they’re playing with a lead late.

Injury report leans towards offense as well. Cleveland is coming in with zero players on their injury report, which means their full offensive rotation will be available. Detroit is hinting at possible absences with Kevin Huerter, Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson, but their lead scorer and primary shot creator will be available as Cade Cunningham is still in the lineup and Detroit’s gotten enough offense from their core to keep games competitive.

Late game script plays a factor too. Cleveland is looking to close it out at home and Detroit is playing with the “do or die” mentality of needing a Game 7. That usually lends itself to an OVER script. Both teams will be aggressive late if the game is close and late fouls will add to the total. If Cleveland gets up by 8+ Detroit will have to force a fast pace to lengthen the game out.

The under looked like a great play to begin the series when the games were slower and more physical. But as this series has progressed Cleveland’s offense has gotten better and Detroit still has Cade Cunningham playing like a star. The total is low enough where even a 108-104 type game lands right around that number.

Jim's Play: 523. Pistons/Cavs OVER

I like the OVER here tonight in Minnesota. Games 2,3,4 and 5 all reportedly finished OVER 218.5, posting at least 223 total points. Game 1 was the only outlier with both teams playing at a grinder’s pace.

San Antonio’s offense has figured things out. They attacked the rim in Game 5 and ended up scoring 68 points in the paint, which is huge against a Minnesota team that is centered around size and rim protection. If Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle continue to get downhill and creating paint opportunities, the Spurs could be in the 110s again.

Minnesota reaching the over has a lot to do with desperation. They are at home in the Target Center with their backs against the wall. They cannot afford to play slow and hope they win a points race against San Antonio. They need Anthony Edwards to attack early, they need Julius Randle to make an impact as a secondary scorer, and they need someone like Naz Reid or Jaden McDaniels to make shots when the Spurs load up on Edwards. Minnesota is likely to come out reckless and that often leads to more fastbreak opportunities, more aggressive playmaking and more foul shots in clutch moments if the game is close late.

Few key players are currently ruled out for either team. San Antonio is without David Jones Garcia and Minnesota will be without Donte DiVincenzo once again, but both teams’ starters and main offensive options are available. This matters because both teams have been able to score heavily regardless of injuries.

Best over scenario: Spurs continue to score in the paint, Wolves match them with fast paced offense and free throws push the fourth quarter total higher. Line leans OVER based on series trend, Spurs’ efficiency in the paint and Wolves’ motivation to not go home defeated.

Jim's Play : 525. Spurs/Twolves OVER 

Philadelphia had a serious statement win on Friday night over Pittsburgh in a wild comeback win. Trailing 6-0 early, the Phillies stormed back only to fall behind once again in the ninth inning before winning 11-9 in 10 innings. Can they continue that success on Saturday? Philadelphia can win this game for several reasons. First, there’s momentum coming off Friday’s win. Bryce Harper went four-for-four and Kyle Schwarber had two homers and five RBI. If Philadelphia can avoid an early deficit, they have every reason to believe in their ability to win this series.

Pitching definitely favors Philadelphia as well. Cristopher Sanchez takes the mound for Philadelphia and he’s been solid this year posting a 4-2 record with a 2.11 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 55.1 innings pitched. Pittsburgh will start Bubba Chandler who is 1-4 with a 4.62 ERA. Philadelphia gets the nod with the more reliable starter and considering how Friday turned into a bullpen game for Philadelphia it’s nice to have length from Sanchez.

Philadelphia’s lineup is another reason to side with them. Aside from Harper’s heroics on Friday, Schwarber is heating up and he now has a league-leading 20 home runs on the season. Philadelphia has been all over the place this season, but when their middle-of-the-order bats are going like this the lineup becomes tough to navigate. Pittsburgh’s bullpen also took a hit on Friday as closer Gregory Soto couldn’t get the job done in the ninth inning. If the Pirates need bullpen again on Saturday that could prove to be costly.

Philadelphia will need to avoid an early deficit if they hope to win easily on Saturday. If Sanchez can pitch into the fifth or sixth inning and keep the bats rolling against Chandler, Philadelphia should be able to take care of business way before Friday’s game did. Philadelphia has the advantage in starting pitching, have their best hitters hitting at the same time and they have momentum behind them. Philly should beat Pittsburgh on Saturday. 

Jim's Play: 953. Phillies 

The starting point for why Tampa Bay should beat Miami on Saturday comes with Tampa Bay’s current temperature. Tampa Bay won Friday’s opener of this rivalry series 7-2 to extend its home winning streak to 11 games and to improve to 17-3 over its last 20 outings. When a team heats up like Tampa Bay has over its last three weeks, that is the type of form you want to support, especially when they are playing at home in a rivalry game.

The pitching matchup helps Tampa Bay’s case as well. Tampa Bay will send Nick Martinez to the hill while Miami counters with Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara does carry name value, but Tampa Bay is playing the more consistent ball and Martinez has been one of Tampa Bay’s better pitchers this season. Martinez has a great ERA and is someone who can keep games under control in the early going. If he can give Tampa Bay five or six solid innings, Tampa Bay can hand things off to its bullpen which has excelled at protecting leads during this extended hot streak.

This Rays offense is also clicking right now. Tampa Bay had five hits in the win on Friday, but Cedric Mullins went 4-for-4 with a homer and three runs scored, Yandy Díaz smoked a two-run homer in the first inning and Taylor Walls drove in three runs. That is encouraging because Tampa Bay is not leaning on just one bat right now. Tampa Bay is getting contributions from the top of the lineup, the middle of the lineup and the bottom of the lineup, which makes this offense difficult to navigate right now.

Miami does have some offensive power, but this Marlins team has been all over the place this season and now finds itself coming off three losses in its last four games. Miami hit two solo homers on Friday, but aside from those meaningless bombs late, they never really had Tampa Bay on upset alert after getting down early. Playing against a Rays team that is seemingly scoring first these days and one that is playing clean baseball while feeding off a great home crowd, Miami cannot afford to fall into an early hole once again.

The key for Tampa Bay will be to apply early pressure on Alcantara. If the Rays can put traffic on base, work Martinez deep into the game and keep Miami chasing this game again, this suddenly tilts in Tampa Bay’s favor. Tampa Bay is rolling at home playing its best baseball of the season, so they have the stronger side in this rivalry tilt.

Jim's Play: 964. Rays 

The starting pitching situation here makes the case for betting the Texas Rangers to win outright on Saturday against the Houston Astros. Jacob deGrom will toe the rubber for Texas on Saturday, coming in at 3-2 with a 2.62 ERA. Houston counters with Kai-Wei Teng, who has held his own at 1-3 with a 3.12 ERA, but Teng simply cannot match up with deGrom and gives Texas a significant advantage as they send their best pitcher to the mound in an in-state rivalry series. Texas is 4-0 in games started by deGrom when installed as a money-line favorite this season.

Betting against Houston should also lean heavily on the bounce-back element for Texas. They got blanked 2-0 on Friday against Spencer Arrighetti, who was a whisper away from recording a no-hitter against Texas. You’re not going to see a pitcher like that the following day. Texas starter Jack Leiter only gave up one run over seven innings, so Texas wasn’t dominated as a team. They simply came up against one of the best pitching performances of the season and were unable to deliver a big hit when they needed it most.

Texas has enough offense to answer the Astros back though. Josh Jung is a great Rangers hitter, posting a .316 average to go along with .363 OBP and a .497 slugging percentage, but Brandon Nimmo, Ezequiel Duran and Corey Seager give Texas enough balance to make Teng pay. Patience will be key for Texas if they want to cash this ticket. If they can get on base early and work Teng deep into his innings, they can shorten this game and attack Houston’s bullpen before the later innings.

Houston does have some dangerous hitters and Alvarez is always a concern for any opposing pitcher, but deGrom is a starter who can quiet the bats by pounding the zone and limiting walks. Houston is just 18-28 overall and just 3-11 ATS as money-line underdogs of +126 or longer, so even with Friday’s victory in hand, this is still a team that has struggled to cash tickets in this spot.

DeGrom is a beast on any given day, let alone against an Astros team that’s scuffled this season. This is a great spot for Texas to win a rivalry game and bounce back from an off-night. They get the nod here with the superior starter and enough offense to break out of Friday’s funk.

Jim's Play: 957. Rangers 

Momentum carries over from night to day, which is why the Tigers should beat the Toronto Blue Jays on Saturday. Detroit won on Friday night, ending a three-game losing streak with a 3-2 victory that required a two-out RBI single from Spencer Torkelson in the ninth inning. That’s a late-game winner that can calm a team down, particularly after losing eight of nine heading into the series opener.

Detroit also has pitching advatnage in a way. Casey Mize is slated to return for the Tigers against Mason Fluharty for Toronto. Fluharty has pitched mostly out of relief to this point and owns a 5.40 ERA. He’s only making his second career start; his lone start was really an inning-long opener role. He’s not an ace in the traditional sense, which leaves doubt about Toronto because the Blue Jays will likely have to stitch together some innings from their bullpen.

Detroit also has a couple of hitters rolling. Riley Greene has hits in 10 straight games and has reached base in 25 straight, which was the longest active streak in MLB entering Saturday. Dillon Dingler went deep twice on Friday while Torkelson was up big in the clutch. Get guys on base early against Fluharty and Toronto will have to make matchup decisions sooner rather than later.

Toronto is good, but Toronto hasn’t won much lately. The Blue Jays have lost four of five, Friday’s defeat included. Toronto got six innings out of Trey Yesavage, but command issues and wild pitches allowed Detroit to hang around before Toronto lost late. Letting another victory slip away can linger, especially when facing a home squad coming off an emotional win to snap its own skid.

The Tigers are at home, getting Mize back and they’re facing a Blue Jays starter who isn’t an “ace.” Detroit has enough juice to beat Toronto.

Jim's Play: 956. Tigers