Hawai‘i has all the tools to win and cover on Saturday. They have the stronger profile coming into a game that’s being asked to go pretty short, and their skill sets attack precisely where UC Santa Barbara has been vulnerable recently. The game tips off at 6:00 p.m. PT (9:00 p.m. ET) Saturday, January 17, 2026, in Santa Barbara. By laying around two points with Hawaii you’re essentially requiring them to win a game in which they have to execute well late. The defensive matchup is the play here: Hawai‘i’s efficiency matchup page illustrates their effective field goal rate allowed being significantly lower than UCSB’s, while UCSB’s defense pops out in that same screen as the sort that can be victimized by a team that moves the ball with some pace and has some ability to put up runs. Speaking of pace, the Warriors push the game more (offense-adjusted tempo, meaning more possessions per game) which is relevant because more possessions overwhelmingly benefit the team with better defensive fundamentals and shot selection, while also throwing off UCSB’s preferred style of play by preventing them from solely relying on slowing down the game. Between that and coming in as the objectively better team in conference play (recorded as 13-3, 5-1 Big West compared to UCSB’s 10-7, 3-3), Hawai‘i has all the recipe they need to dominate stretches of this game, get stops when they need to establish/build a cushion, and cover a low number on the road.

Jim's Play: Take: 807. Hawaii (Big West Game of the Month)

St. John’s si trending in the right direction and have favorable matchup plays in factors that tend to determine close Big East road games: creating shots and attacking the paint for easy baskets. Saturday’s matchup features two evenly matched teams trying to bounce back from losses earlier in the week, but factors like three-point shooting percentages can swing wildly in close games. Shooting efficiently from downtown is obviously important, but when you’re playing on the road in a close game you ideally want to create the majority of your buckets in the paint and on free throw lines, which St. John’s has the players to do. The game will be played Saturday, January 17th, 2026 at 8:00 p.m. ET at the Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia (Peacock). Tip-off has St. John’s favored by -2.5. 

St. John’s found their groove again and is hitting shots with confidence. That confidence translates on the road because they aren’t forced to be perfect to score. The Red Storm are also the significantly more explosive team overall this year (86.0 ppg) and that potential upside is huge when betting against the underdog on the road because you don’t want to get into a shooting slump.

The play I like tactically is Johnnys’ athleticism and paint gravity vs. Villanova keeping them out of the lane. Villanova has defended well this season (they give up 68.6 ppg), but St. John’s starts two guys that can bang down low in Zuby Ejiofor and they have playmakers all over the floor to keep Nova guessing. That’s important because Villanova has depth concerns and can’t afford to give away freebies if they want to keep their foot on the gas. Putting Nova’s bigs or best defenders on the bench tilts the game in the second half because the Wildcats like to play at their pace and punish teams that knock them off of it. Also, St. John’s has another scorer catching fire in Oziyah Sellers. He’s erupted over his last several games in a larger role as a starter and gives the Red Storm another wave to take advantage if Villanova backs anyone off.

If everything clicks, St. John’s should use their athleticism and paint advantage to win “hard points” (free throws, offensive rebounds, tips) and if it’s close late they have enough creators to make one or two plays and cover the compact -2.5 spread.

Jim's Play: 783. St John's 

The late NFC Divisional game on Saturday between the SF 49ers and Seattle Seahawks looks to me to be a low scoring contest. The weather looks to be an issue. on Saturday (8:00 p.m. ET) in Seattle where weather could help skew things down. Weather at kickoff will be in cold (but dry) conditions with temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s°F at night. That’s not the classic “wind and rain” game we see from kickoffs in Seattle, but cold weather can help defenses tackle better and make offenses heavier on runs while not wanting to force passes into tight coverage. Bottom line: familiarity between rivals, defensive playoff-style football, likely run/field-position battle script, and Seattle potentially having to adapt their offense if their quarterback is limited equals a nice path to the Under.

Coaches in the playoffs don’t like to play risky unless they have to, especially when playing a familiar divisional opponent. Blame it on typical playoff-football style or coaches being cautious with the season on the line, but playoff games tend to have more runs, more clock used, and more punts that pin opponents deep in their own territory.

Add in that this is the third game these teams have played this season, and they both struggled to score against one another with defensive, turnover-prone contests decided by eight points or less. Seattle also might not have 100% from their quarterback, as Sam Darnold (questionable, oblique) is up and down on the injury report. The Seahawks could be in a situation where they lean on their run game and short-to-intermediate passing concepts even more. Meanwhile, San Francisco is okay with playing to their running game and Christian McCaffrey’s versatility, and if both teams want to avoid turnovers, you often end up with longer drives that end with either a punt or field goal.

While the weather likely will not be a big factor, I like this game to stay under tht total points here on Saturday evening. 

Jim's Play: 389. 49ers/Seahawks UNDER 

Buffalo is my favorite to win this Divisional Round game for a couple of reasons. They’re bringing the best weapon in football (Josh Allen) into a game where Denver’s advantages can be minimized, and Buffalo is continuing to trend healthier as we draw closer to kickoff. Game time is Saturday, January 17, 2026 at 2: 30 p.m. MT in Denver (1:30 p.m. PT). The altitude will be mentioned countless times this weekend, but Buffalo preparing for it all week including training at altitude to lessen the impact of the Mile High City. That minimizes Denver’s advantage later in games when teams start to feel it.

Additionally, Buffalo has an advantage because Allen gives you multiple problems. Denver’s top-5 defense has to respect Allen’s off-script plays, his run ability on obvious passing downs, and Buffalo’s overall ability to turn one broken play into six points. Adding both DT Ed Oliver and WR Curtis Samuel off IR this week was also a huge boost for Buffalo. Ed Oliver provides even more pop along the interior (vital against Denver’s run game and pass protection) and Samuel gives Buffalo another capable weapon offensively. Buffalo also come into this game trending healthier as both Allen and TE Dalton Kincaid were not listed with any game-day injury designations on the final injury report.

Lastly, I like Buffalo due to game script. Denver is going to want to keep this game ugly: win the game on defense, shorten it as much as possible, and win late. Buffalo has already proven they can beat Denver in the playoffs and they’re 2-0 in the playoffs against Denver all-time. If Buffalo takes care of the ball early and can remain patient in allowing Denver to cheat up against their run game then Denver will have to chase points at some point. And when that happens, Allen excels because the Bills have more “ways” to score than most defenses want to deal with for 60 minutes.

Jim's Play: 391. Bills