It’s hard to back a team scoring 18 PPG when they are almost a TD favorite. But when you look deeper, FIU can exploit the Aggies' defense. FIU runs a controlled offense, averaging 33 minutes in TOP. New Mexico State has allowed 215 or more rushing yards twice. In both FIU wins, they rushed for 150 or more yards. The Aggies have been torched twice for more than 300 YPG passing, and FIU is #20 in PY at 292 per game. What holds FIU back is that their QB will make dumb decisions, and he has the six picks to prove it. He’s only had one pick at home, and that’s what we’ll need: one or fewer TOs, which should lead to more points for the home team. FIU is #1 in defense in CUSA play and #8 nationally. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS at home against FBS teams recently. While NMST is 3-6 ATS away off a home game. The clincher: Road teams off a home win against a conference rival, versus an opponent off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite, are 10-31 ATS, losing by 9.9 PPG. Pick the Panthers.

The White Sox are 4-0 in the postseason and have yet to play a home game. They have held the opposing teams to nine total runs and will have an electric atmosphere on the South Side. Cleveland was #24 in runs scored during the regular season, and nothing has changed in the playoffs. Sean Newcomb will open Game 3 for the White Sox, making it the fourth time in five postseason games Chicago has used an opener rather than a traditional starter. Newcomb has a 0.84 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 10 2/3 innings as an opener in 2026. With the day off, the Chicago bullpen should be ready to go all-out again, as they have an ERA Under 1.00 in the postseason. Surveying the offenses, Chicago is #3 in home runs at home, Cleveland #23 in away dingers. The Pale Hose advance to the ALCS.