Frank Sawyer Frank Sawyer
Frank Sawyer is on an 8 of 10 (80%) run with his highest-rated 25* plays, and he furthers his 5 of 6 (83%) Soccer Game of the Month/Year mark with his 25* EPL NBC-SN Total of the Month at 7:30 AM ET!
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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 16, 2021
Knicks vs Mavs
UNDER 211½ -110 Lost
Play Type: Free


My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday is with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks and the Dallas Mavericks. New York (29-27) has won four in a row with their 116-106 win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Knicks stay on the road where they have played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. New York has also played 4 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Dallas (30-24) snapped a two-game losing streak with their dramatic 114-113 win at Memphis on Wednesday. The Mavericks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Dallas has also played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports DELIVERED their 25* NHL Central Division Total of the Year last night with the Nashville-Carolina Under to further an 8 of 9 (89%) run with their highest-rated 25* plays while improving a 125 of 197 (63%) mark with 25* plays in All-Sports! Frank is on a 25 of 40 (63%) NBA run along with a 22 of 34 (65%) NBA Sides run — and now he furthers his 38 of 56 (68%) NBA 25* run with his 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year! DON’T MISS OUT!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 16, 2021
Knicks vs Mavs
-4½ -115 at linepros
Play Type: Top Premium

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). THE SITUATION: Dallas (30-24) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 114-113 win at Memphis as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday. New York (29-27) has won four games in a row with their 116-106 upset win at New Orleans as a 2.5-point underdog on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS MINUS THE POINTS: Luka Doncic saved Dallas against the Grizzlies with a stumbling buzzer-beating 3-pointer to end the game (although he was probably fouled on the play — so he may have been given free throws to win the game). Doncic will be the best player on the court tonight — and Kristaps Porzingis will likely be the second-best player. The Unicorn has been on fire as of late with a 22.0 Points-Per-Game scoring average in his last ten games along with a 10.2 Rebounds-Per-Game mark on 50% shooting from the field and a 38.6% mark from downtown. Porzingis got Monday off at home against the 76ers in a game where the Mavs got blown out — but he returned on Wednesday with 21 points against the Grizzlies. Injuries and COVID slowed down this team early — but they are pretty much healthy again and playing much better basketball on both ends of the court. The Mavs have won seven of their last ten games. This team played at a historic level on offense last season — they were due to regress in that area this year. Defense has been the concern for this team — and they rank fifth-best in the NBA in Defensive Rating over their last ten games. They should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a narrow win by three points or less against a Southwest Division rival. The Mavericks have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 5 home games as a favorite, they have covered the point spread in 4 of these games. New York is a team due for an emotional letdown after pulling the upset on the road against the defensively-challenged Pelicans. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit upset win as a road underdog. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their 6 games this season after winning three in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning four of their last five games. The Knicks have covered point spread expectations in seven straight games after their upset win against New Orleans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 straight games after going on a seven-game point spread cover run. Tom Thibodeau’s team is just 12-17 on the road this season. And while they rank 3rd in the NBA in Defensive Rating as the team takes to Thibodeau’s defensive philosophy, they are just 22nd in the league in Offensive Rating.

FINAL TAKE: Defense goes only so far against talent such as Luka Doncic — as he showed with that game-winner on Wednesday. The Mavs are particularly dangerous when Porzingis is healthy and playing well. The Mavs won easily against the Knicks on April 2nd in a 99-86 victory. New York has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games in the second half of the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games. 25* NBA Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (554) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Apr 16, 2021
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton
0½ -117 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Everton (200106) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200105). THE SITUATION: Everton (W14-D6-L10) enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Brighton and Hove Albion on Monday. Tottenham (W14-D7-L10) has lost two straight in the English Premier League after their 3-1 loss to Manchester City on Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Tottenham is simply a hot mess right now — they have only one victory in their last five matches across all competitions. They have also won just seven times in their last 20 games in the EPL — and this was against lowly competition: West Brom, Sheffield, Fulham, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa, and Leeds United. Those are sides in the bottom-11 including the three teams likely to be relegated. Against the top-ten teams in the table, the Spurs are averaging only 1.06 expected goals (xG) while surrendering 1.48 expected goals (xGA). This is a team moving in the wrong direction under manager Jose Mourinho. It usually takes about two years for a locker room to grow tired of the prickly manager — but Mourinho seems to have already worn out his welcome less than a year and a half into his tenure. In his 57 matches with Tottenham, he has overseen 27 wins with 82.3 xG and 83.2 xGA. Not great, Bob. In comparison to Mauricio Pochettino who has led PSG to the Semifinals of the Championship League, in his last 57 matches with the Spurs, they had 1.48 xG and a 1.41 xGA. The lack of quality center backs is now exposing itself in a defense that is waning. They are allowing 2.75 Big Chances per match in their last three in the EPL which is bottom-three in the league over that span. The lowly Newcastle attack managed over 4 xG while scoring twice in a 2-2 draw on April 11th. On the road, Tottenham has only won once in their last four matches across all competitions. Everton is struggling as well having gone winless in their last five competitions — but the players still respect (and don’t loathe) their manager, Carlo Ancelotti. Injuries have hit this team hard — and they will be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin as he continues to deal with a groin issue. Ancelotti should have the services of Joshua King, Allan, Lucas Digne, and keeper Jordan Pickford. The loss of DCL up top hurts — but Ancelotti can move Richarlison up to the attacker spot with James Rodriguez feeding him from the midfield. The Toffees are much better when Rodriguez is healthy and on the pitch. Everton has scored in four straight EPL matches at home. And Meyerside Giants have been playing pretty stout defense — they are fifth-best in the EPL since March in xGA. They have not allowed more than one goal in their last five matches at home at Goodison Park.

FINAL TAKE: Everton has matched up well against Tottenham this season with two victories — a 1-0 win on the road on opening day back on September 13th, and then a 5-4 win in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup. The Toffees’ injuries are holding them back a bit — but they are playing with better morale and defensive cohesion right now. This is a critical match for both sides as they look to qualify for the Europa League with outside hopes at perhaps a top-four finish which gets them into the Champions League. An upset win is very possible — but Everton should at least leave this match with a draw. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Everton (200106) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Matchup Selection W/L
Soccer  |  Apr 17, 2021
West Ham United vs Newcastle United
OVER 2½ -110 Won
Play Type: Top Premium

At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W16-D7-L8) enters this match coming off a 3-2 win against Leicester City last Sunday. Newcastle (W8-D8-L15) comes off a 2-1 win at Burnley last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Hammers got two opening goals in the first half from Jesse Lingard who is on fire right now in the English Premier League. Lingard has scored eight goals and added three assists in his nine matches since being acquired by West Ham on loan from Man United in the winter transfer window. While he is over-performing his underlying metrics, he is still averaging 0.44 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes and 0.18 expected assists per 90 minutes. And take his over-performance with this grain of salt: Lionel Messi over-performs his metrics as well. No, Lingard is not Messi (or Messi Jr.) — but there necessarily are outlier performances that determined league-wide averages of expectation. Brighton underperforms in their expected goals because their striker, Aaron Maupay, is not very good. Lingard might be out-performing his expectations because he is simply playing better than the average player. Baseball measures this statistic a bit better with their “Wins Above Replacement Player” (WARP) number. I digress. Even without forward Michail Antonio being healthy and available, West Ham is clicking on offense right now. They have scored three goals in each of their last three matches. They have scored 20 goals in their last ten matches while averaging a robust 1.61 xG per game during that span. David Moyes’ side will need to continue this efficiency on offense given their injuries on defense. The Hammers have been without center back Angelo Ogbunna and holding midfielder Declan Rice — and they have allowed 3.58 xGA combined in their last two matches. Left-back Aaron Cresswell joins them on the sidelines for this match as he is dealing with a hamstring injury. That is not a good development for a defense that has allowed the second-most shots inside the box in their last four matches. Newcastle may be in 17th place but they lead the EPL over the last four matchweeks in expected goals in open play. They generated a whopping 4.07 xG against Tottenham two matches ago. They have scored four goals in their last two matches — yet they are still the most underperforming side in the EPL when comparing expected goals with actual goals in the last six matchweeks. If lack of talent explained that problem, help is on the way for manager Steve Bruce who saw the return of his two most talented players on offense in Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin last Sunday. They combine to average 0.69 xG per 90 minutes. But like West Ham, the Magpies are dealing with their share of injuries from key defensive players as well. Bruce will be without center backs Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar for this match. Newcastle allows 1.54 xGA per match this season which is the fourth-worst mark in the league. And in their ten matches against teams in the top half of the table, the Magpies are allowing 2.38 xGA per contest.

FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams have plenty at stake. West Ham is motivated to stay in fourth place to qualify for the Champions League next season. Newcastle is six points clear of relegation in 17th place — but picking up points this morning goes a long way to keep them safe which is why Bruce has them playing as openly as of late as they have all season. In a game between two teams playing with confidence on offense but with depleted defensive corps, expect a higher-scoring match. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200121) and Newcastle United (200122). Best of luck for us — Frank.


Frank Sawyer offers unmatched handicapping analysis over a diverse array of sports for his Hollywood Sports clients. Frank combines his over twenty years of experience as a professional sports handicapper with the drive to outwork his competition. Why invest in a sports service? Frank answers that question with a proven methodology. His model for success starts by investing a significant amount of time analyzing each team in the sports he handicaps to serve as a foundation for that season. Frank then combines his team assessments with empirical situational handicapping angles along with the latest in cutting edge analytics to identify value in the betting line. Decades of handicapping experience along with his unrelenting focus are the qualities that Frank offers his clients. Frank produces extensive reports that detail his decisions. He does this for two reasons: (1) clients deserve to see the work that goes into a conclusion and (2) Frank’s attention to detail within these reports validates to his clients that he continues to work tirelessly to unearth winning angles. With that ambition in mind, Frank has expanded his areas of interest and scrutiny to include the English Premier League, the PGA Tour, the WNBA, and UFC/Boxing in recent years to go along with the major four sports of football, basketball, baseball, and hockey along with the Canadian Football League, Horse Racing, and World Cup Soccer that he has specialized in since he began Hollywood Sports in 1997. Frank believes long-term success involves not only continuing to dig deeper into the sports that he covers but also in expanding his horizons with new events that can provide additional tools in his handicapping toolbox with the goal of rewarding his clients for their loyalty over the years.

Frank uses a rating 10*, 20*, 25* rating system that also serves a guide for money management: 10* plays warrant a standard bet; 20* plays should see a doubling of that standard bet; 25* plays are Frank’s highest-rated play with the recommendation to invest 2.5 times the standard bet. For Frank’s futures reports or for events with odds such as PGA events or horse races, Frank usually offers three recommendations in his betting report: his Best Bet for the event; his Top Overlay Bet which presents his best value play relative to the odds for the event: and his Long Shot Bet for a big underdog offer value with its potential big payout. Frank’s signature play his “A-List* release which is reserved for rare and elite betting opportunities.

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