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| BIG 2023! ASA runs thru July 16th: All Sports 42 games over .500 and UP $14,560 in 2023! NBA Tops long-term +$55,600 (+100 games)! NHL long-term +$38,240 (+44 games)! CFB 72-49 (+$18,180). MLB Sides 43-27 in 2023. |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Apr 24, 2024 Marlins vs Braves |
Braves -1½ -125 at Mirage |
Lost $125.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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#962 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 7:20 PM ET - Sixto Sanchez is slated to get the start here for the Marlins but he is really just an opener. That being said, we are not concerned with the starting pitcher here as it is likely that Kyle Tyler could be in line to get significant work behind Sixto in this one. Marlins already have bullpen injury issues and that is why Tyler is being called up even though he struggled in his most recent outing at the AAA level. Sanchez just now getting back from shoulder injuries in recent years. Tyler hardly has any big league experience. The Braves are expected to start Reynaldo Lopez here. He has been fantastic this season with just 1 earned run allowed on 11 hits while striking out 18 in 18 innings! There is also a great disparity between these two lineups! Marlins have a .321 slugging percentage this season while the Braves have a .471 slugging percentage this season! Atlanta is 16-6 this season and 12 of the 16 wins have been by at least 2 runs! Marlins are 6-19 this season and 16 of their 19 losses by 2+ runs! Miami is just 2-10 in evening games this season. Atlanta has feasted on sub-par competition this season going 11-2 against teams with a sub-.500 record! Atlanta enters this game on an 8-1 run. Miami has scored just 1.7 runs per game in their last 6 losses. Atlanta has scored 6 runs per game in last 8 wins. 6 to 2 sounds about right to us in this one and the Braves have outscored Miami 25 to 8 in the 4 wins in their 4-1 record against the Marlins this season. That is an average score of 6 to 2 as well. Another mismatch here and the Marlins have been shutout in each of the first two games in this series as well. The Marlins just don't have the bats to keep up here. Big edges in this one and a home blowout is our call. We think we're getting some nice value in laying -1.5 runs in this one and only having to invest at a relatively low price in the -125 range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Apr 24, 2024 Pelicans vs Thunder |
OVER 211½ -110 |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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ASA top play on 10* OVER 211.5 New Orleans at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The opening game of this series was obviously very low scoring with 186 total points. That forced the oddsmakers to make a correction on the O/U number here, so we are looking at a much lower number compared to Game 1. We like the value with an Over bet on this one. In the opener these two teams combined for 181 total field goal attempts which is higher than the league average of 177 per game. The Pels had a poor shooting night at 39% overall and 28% from the 3-point line. Those averages are well below their seasonal numbers of 48.5% and 38%. We like a positive regression here for the Pels and more shots to fall in Game 2. The same case can be made for the Thunder. OKC shot 44% overall in Game 1 and 31% from Deep. Both well below their season average of 49.8% (3rd in NBA) and 38.8% (1st). With both teams expected to shoot better tonight we predict an easy Over winner in Game 2. |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Apr 24, 2024 Pelicans vs Thunder |
Pelicans +7½ -108 at BetVegas |
Lost $108.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits. |
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| PICKS IN PROGRESS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Apr 25, 2024 White Sox vs Twins |
Twins -1½ +100 at circa |
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| Play Type: Premium | ||
| #912 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Chicago White Sox, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - We will mention the starting pitching too but this play has to do with the overall mismatch and the horrid start the White Sox have had to this season. We were a little leery of the Twins bats and have stayed away from this series so far because of that. A win by just one run in Game 2 of the 4-game set validated the caution. However, the Twins did win big again yesterday and are now going for the 4-game sweep and 2 of the 3 wins in this series have been by at least a 3-run margin. The White Sox are simply dreadful overall and also at the plate! Chicago has scored an average of only 2.2 runs per game this season! Their record is now 3-21 this season and they have gone 1-12 away from home! They have lost 6 straight and have gone 1-11 last 12 games with an aggregate average score of 6.4 to 2.0 in those games. Yes they are not only losing but losing bad and we expect that to continue here. The Twins have scored 19 runs so far in this series and confidence is increasing. Chicago's Soroka is 0-3 this season and has struggled badly in 4 of his 5 starts this season. Minnesota's Woods-Richardson had a great first start this season and though he has had some struggles in the minors this season, he was solid against the Tigers and will take advantage of facing the worst hitting team in baseball here plus he has the luxury of pitching at home. 15 of Chicago's last 18 losses have been by a multi-run margin and, per our computer math model, this one plays out in similar fashion. Another ugly loss for the White Sox. Lay it with the Twins. Minnesota has had a tough early season schedule - look at the teams they have faced and their records - but they are now 3-0 against the only team they have faced that currently has a losing record on the season and that is these downtrodden White Sox. Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwins), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the sports betting industry. Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s. After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since. They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year. ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten. ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few. They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season. ASAwins handicapping methods have evolved through years of with hard work and research being the anchor of their success. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections. They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping. That’s not where they stop, however. They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest). On top of that, they analyze each point spread (and their movements) comparing them with their own power ratings to find where an edge might be found. Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models predict the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that aren’t swayed by the human element. So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry. Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so. Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need. Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you invest in the known commodity of ASAwins! |
