*3 Star Free Pick* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have had three crazy games. They went into overtime and lost a heartbreaker 63-61 against North Carolina in game one. They then went to College Station and stunned Texas A&M in week two. They returned home and really should have lost to Troy, but the Trojans stunningly took a safety on purpose and then Appalachian State hit the ridiculous Hail Mary pass on the final play of the game to squeak out a win.

Appalachian State has to have a letdown at some point. I can't say it will definitely be in this game, but it is coming. The Mountaineers are a good team, but their defense is only average at best. Their offense relies heavily on the running game. 

James Madison has played a very weak schedule thus far, but they have looked great in those games. This is a really well coached team who has been great at stopping the run. Todd Centeio transferred in from Colorado State and he has looked great at quarterback. The Dukes should be very up for this game. They have had two weeks to prepare for this showdown! 

I think this one stays tight throughout. I give James Madison a shot at winning outright. There is clearly some variance in this game because James Madison is so new to FBS and we haven't seen them play good teams. Still, I think this is a solid play and I recommend taking part (1/4 to 1/3 or so) of the wager on the moneyline. 

Take James Madison.

*6-0 SWEEP last Saturday. HUGE 16-1 run last 17 plays overall. Saturday Super Value 3 Pack is up and individual packages are up as well. Get on board!* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 14 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. They rank 128th out of 131 in explosiveness allowed this season. 

Old Dominion's offensive numbers don't look very good this year, but they have played a good slate of defenses. Virginia is a much improved defense. Virginia Tech is a good defense. East Carolina is a pretty solid defense as well. Arkansas State will easily be the worst defense they have faced. Old Dominion plays at the 23rd fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Monarchs should get more scoring chances here.

Arkansas State is a pretty good offense led by former Florida State quarterback James Blackmon. The Red Wolves are capable of putting up a big number on offense as well, and they showed that last week against Memphis. Old Dominion's defense is a below average defense. Arkansas State's offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but ODU doesn't have a good pass rush.

The weather looks very nice for this game. I think this one is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as an over team because of their pace, but the under is actually 9-1 in their last 10 games. Ole Miss runs the football a lot which keeps the clock moving. They have run the ball on 64.1% of their snaps so far this season. 

Ole Miss is also much better on defense than they were in the past. In fact, this year's defense looks to be the best Ole Miss defense in quite a few years. The Rebels haven't played good offenses, but it is still really impressive for them to rank 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They shut out Georgia Tech last weekend.

Tulsa's biggest weakness is their offensive line. The Golden Hurricanes have already allowed 10 sacks this year. Ole Miss is going to be in the backfield here. The Rebels have gotten 13 sacks already this year. 

The tempo played here will be quick, but I expect Ole Miss to have the lead and look to be running the clock in the fourth quarter. This is a very high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank first in the nation in tempo. Indiana is getting a bunch of quick snaps off. The Hoosiers aren't that efficient as an offense, but they do have 10 plays of 30 yards or longer already this season.

Indiana has also been terrible in the red zone so far this year. The Hoosiers have only scored on 10 of 14 trips into the red zone. They have a touchdown on only 6 trips out of 14 in the red zone. Those are among the worst in the country. That is something that should regress in a positive way a bit through the year.

Cincinnati's offense has impressed me this year. They are averaging 7.24 yards per play on the season. The Bearcats already have 11 plays of 30 yards or more. Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Indiana's defense is particularly weak against the pass (106th in passing play success rate allowed) and Cincinnati's passing game has been good this season. The Bearcats have sped up their pace of play as well, ranking 46th out of 131 in terms of tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a tremendous defensive line. They are great run stuffers. That is really important in a game like this because Western Michigan really wants to run the football as much as possible. Western Michigan's quarterback play has been brutal. They badly miss Eleby and the star receivers they have lost in recent seasons. I don't trust Western Michigan to be able to take advantage of San Jose State's relative weakness in the secondary.

San Jose State's offensive line really holds back their offense. The Spartans rank 127th out of 131 teams in the country in offensive line yards so far this year. They are also 100th in explosiveness, so they aren't getting many big plays. 

Two teams who have weak offensive lines and struggle in 3rd and short situations here. I think this is a game where even when they get into the red zones, it could be field goals instead of touchdowns several times.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of these are teams I'm looking to bet overs with throughout the season when given the opportunity. I like the matchup here. 

Memphis has an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an underrated passer who can make something out of nothing at times. The Tigers have enough weapons around him to be very dangerous.

The Memphis defense is weak, especially against the run. North Texas has a strong offensive line. The Mean Green offense has worked nicely all year. Their only issue has been turnovers in key spots that stall out drives. North Texas has 399 yards or more of total offense in every game this year.

Memphis has seen the total get to 72 and 76 points in two of their games already this year. North Texas has seen two of their games get to a total of 85 points. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the over.