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Jimmy Boyd |
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| FREE PICKS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
| NFL | Oct 08, 2026 Bucs vs. Cowboys |
Total 47½ -105 at DRAFTKINGS |
in 17h |
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1* Free Pick on Bucs/Cowboys: under 47½ This total is priced off Sunday's shootout, and short-week Thursday football rarely delivers a sequel. Dallas just played a 64-point game. The Cowboys trailed Houston 16-6 at halftime and stole it 34-30, with Dak Prescott throwing 45 times for a season-high 335 yards and CeeDee Lamb soaking up 21 of those targets. That performance is built into 47.5. Dallas is averaging 30.5 points and allowing 28 through four games, so the books have already pushed this number up. You make money when you buy, not when you sell, and the buy price on the over here is the worst it's been all season. Now both teams turn around on three days' rest. Thursday games get sloppy. Game plans shrink, legs are heavy, and offenses that live on rhythm tend to look a step slow. The Cowboys are also patching the offensive line. Tackle Drew Shelton is doubtful and unlikely to be cleared for Thursday. Guard Tyler Smith was only cleared to return to practice Monday after opening the season on injured reserve, and he was limited in his first session back. Getting him activated on a short week is a stretch. Outside of Lamb, the passing game is thinner than the scores suggest. Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson sits at 0.71 yards per route run with just 12 catches for 83 yards. If Lamb doesn't see 21 targets again, Dallas has to grind this one out. Take the inflated number before it drops. I like the Under |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | Oct 07, 2026 Aces vs Golden State Valkyries |
UNDER 157½ -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
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4* VEGAS INSIDER on Aces/Golden State Valkyries: under 157½ This total comes down to who controls the pace, and Golden State has already answered that question once in this series. The Valkyries play at an 89.9 pace over their last 10 games with a 92.2 defensive rating. That's a team built to shrink the game. Their own offense won't threaten a number this high either: 78 points a game on 41% shooting and 31% from three. The case for the over is obvious. Las Vegas averaged 93.5 points over its last 10 on a 115 offensive rating at a 97.5 pace. Combine the two recent scoring averages and you get 171.5, well clear of 157.5. I get it. Here's why that math breaks down. Pace is not split down the middle when a disciplined home team wants to walk the ball up in a playoff setting. Golden State held Las Vegas to 60 points in Game 1, a 71-60 final that landed 26 points under this number. The Aces' fast-break game never got started because the Valkyries don't give up live-ball turnovers or bad shots. The Vegas rotation is also thinner than those last-10 numbers suggest. NaLyssa Smith is out after starting all 38 of her appearances, taking 11.7 points and 24.3 minutes off the board. Jewell Loyd exited Game 1 with a leg injury and looks unlikely to go, and Dana Evans is questionable. That's bench scoring and pace-pushing guards stripped out of the lineup. Fewer possessions, fewer healthy scorers, and a defense that just proved the blueprint works. The adjustment Vegas makes in Game 2 is effort, not tempo. I like the Under |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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WNBA | Oct 07, 2026 Liberty vs Dream |
Dream -120 at PlayMGM |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Free | ||
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1* Free Pick on Dream -120 The gap between these two teams over the last 10 games is bigger than this price suggests. Atlanta is 9-1 in that stretch with a +19.2 net rating. They're scoring 95.7 a game on a 117.3 offensive rating while holding opponents to a 98 defensive rating. That's dominant on both ends. New York is 6-4 over its last 10 with a +3.7 net rating. Good team, but the Liberty's 106.6 offensive rating is more than 10 points behind what Atlanta has been putting up. The obvious case against the Dream is Allisha Gray. She's out with a finger injury, and losing 19 points per game matters. I'm not pretending it doesn't. But look at what's left. Rhyne Howard at 17.7 a game, Angel Reese at 16.4, Jordin Canada at 11.6. That's three legitimate scorers in the starting unit, and the market has already baked Gray's absence into this number. A team playing this well at home would be laying a lot more than -120 at full strength. The efficiency edge holds up too. Atlanta shoots 47% from the floor with a 54% effective field goal rate and turns it over on just 14% of possessions. New York coughs it up on 17% of possessions, and against a defense forcing mistakes at Atlanta's rate, that's a real problem. Liberty's Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones will get theirs inside. The rest of the roster has to outscore a deeper, hotter team on the road, and I don't see it at this price. I like the Dream |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NBA | Oct 07, 2026 Wolves vs Pacers |
Pacers +140 at Buckeye |
Won $140 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER on Pacers +140 This preseason opener isn't being played in Indianapolis or Minneapolis. It's at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa, Haliburton's old college gym. That makes it a de facto home game for Indiana with a built-in reason for the starters to show up and perform. The price says Minnesota wins this about 58% of the time. In an exhibition where both teams are running short rotations, that's too wide a gap. Indiana can score. Over their final 10 games last season the Pacers put up 118.1 a night on 58% effective shooting and hit 39% from three. That perimeter efficiency is the kind of thing that carries into October, even with limited starter minutes. The case against Indiana is real and worth addressing. They went 3-7 over that same closing stretch with a 115.8 defensive rating, and the guard depth is banged up right now. T.J. McConnell and Quenton Jackson are both questionable, and Johnny Furphy is out. In a regular season game that matters a lot. In a preseason opener it matters far less. Both benches will be full of camp bodies auditioning for roster spots, so the depth edge Minnesota carries on paper mostly washes out. Minnesota's side of the ledger isn't scary either. The Wolves closed last season 5-5 with a 112.3 offensive rating on 46% shooting, and Donte DiVincenzo is still working back from his Achilles tear. Preseason games tilt toward motivation and shooting. Indiana has both here, plus the crowd. I like the Pacers |
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NCAA-F | Oct 07, 2026 Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State |
UNDER 51 -110 |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
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5* NO BRAINER on Jacksonville State/Kennesaw State: under 51 Kennesaw State's offense is the problem with the over here. The Owls have scored 14, 9, and 17 in their last 3 games, all losses. They put up 47 on West Georgia in the opener, then the schedule got real and the scoring dried up. The season numbers back it up. Kennesaw State is 1-3 and averaging 21.75 points a game this year. SP+ has their offense ranked 108th in the country at a 20.1 rating. That's a bottom-quartile unit any way you slice it. Jacksonville State brings the defense to match. The Gamecocks are allowing 21.8 points a game through a 3-2 start, and they just held Middle Tennessee to 13 in a 23-13 win. That game landed on 36. The flip side matters too. Jacksonville State averages 27.4 a game, but SP+ grades their offense 70th. Decent, not explosive. Kennesaw's defense ranks 101st, so the Gamecocks should move the ball, but one functional offense doesn't clear a 51-point total on its own. Run the simple math. Jacksonville State's scoring average plus Kennesaw's scoring average gets you to roughly 49. For the over to cash, Kennesaw State needs to outscore its season norm against a defense that's been stingier than anything the Owls have handled lately. Midweek Conference USA games between two teams ranked 77th and 113th in SP+ tend to be grinders, not shootouts. The team that has to do the scoring here hasn't shown it can. I like the Under |
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Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come. No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays. Heavy Hitter: Jimmy’s Heavy Hitter plays are backed by a wealth of statistical analysis and fit into one or more of his many winning systems. This is the well-rounded gem of Jimmy’s top plays, and it covers games from every angle. Vegas Insider: Nobody spots a winning system like Jimmy Boyd. His Vegas Insider label is reserved for plays backed by the strongest systems and trends on the board. Bailout Blowout: There is no better way to end the day than picking up a big win on the final game of the evening. Jimmy’s Bailout Blowouts come on late games and they have built a strong reputation as being a consistent winner. All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates. |
