15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +142

The Atlanta Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games overall and coming up clutch down the stretch as they try and clinch the NL East.  But they still only lead the Philadelphia Phillies by 1.5 games with eight games left.  There's still work to be done.

Now they go for the sweep of the lowly San Diego Padres, who were just eliminated from the playoffs yesterday and have nothing to play for now.  They have pretty much packed it in for weeks, going just 3-11 in their last 14 games overall.

San Diego starter Joe Musgrove has struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.585 WHIP in his last three starts.  Musgrove has posted a 5.55 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta.  He and the Padres are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as more than -150 favorites.  Roll with the Braves Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Arizona Cardinals -7

The Arizona Cardinals have been an offensive juggernaut this season.  Few teams in the NFL have as much talent on offense as they do, and it has shown in the early going.  The Cardinals rank 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 445 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in scoring offense at 36 points per game and 4th at 7.0 yards per play.

I'm willing to lay the points with the Cardinals this week because they should be able to name their score against this putrid Jacksonville defense.  The Jaguars lost 21-37 to the Texans in Week 1 and gave up 449 total yards.  Then last week they lost 13-23 at home to the Broncos and gave up 398 more yards.  That was an even bigger blowout than the score showed as the Jaguars got a kickoff return TD late in the 4th quarter.  They were also outgained by 209 yards by the Broncos.

Trevor Lawrence has been a massive disappointment.  He is completing just 50% of his passes and has already thrown five interceptions in two games.  He is also averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt.  It's hard to trust him to be able to match the Cardinals score for score, which is what he is going to have to try to do because the Jaguars aren't stopping Kyler Murray and company.

After beating the Titans 38-13 on the road in Week 1, the Cardinals failed to cover in their 34-33 win over the Vikings as 4-point home favorites last week, and I think we are getting them at a discount because of it.  They should have lost that game, but the Vikings had kicker issues again.  But that was a desperate and hungry Vikings team.  And while the Jaguars are desperate too, they're just not good enough to do anything about it, which showed last week against the Broncos.

The Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Arizona is 11-5-2 ATS in its last 18 road games overall.  Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  This one really is as easy as it looks.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

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20* Bucs/Rams NFC No-Brainer on Los Angeles +1

No team has impressed me more than the Los Angeles Rams through two games.  After beating the Bears 34-14 at home in Week 1, they went on the road in Week 2 and beat the Colts 27-24.  That was even after handing the Colts seven free points on special teams when they snapped the ball into the up man and the Colts recovered it in the end zone.

The Rams are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense and giving up just 5.0 yards per play on defense, outgaining their opponents by 1.9 yards per play.  They have the same elite defense that they've had in years' past, and now they finally have a QB in Matthew Stafford fit for running Sean McVay's offense.  Stafford is completing 69.6% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging a ridiculous 10.7 yards per attempt.

The Bucs are overhyped after their 2-0 start that has seen them score 31 points against the Cowboys and 48 more against the Falcons.  But they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Cowboys, and they got 14 points handed to them by the Falcons on tipped balls that resulted in pick-6's.  That was a 28-25 game in the 4th quarter before the Bucs scored three touchdowns without even blinking to put it away.  And the Falcons are terrible.

The Bucs put up gaudy offensive numbers against two of the worst defenses in the NFL.  Now they take a big step up in class here against the Rams, who led the NFL in total defense last year.  And we remember what the Rams did to them last year.  They went on the road at Tampa Bay and won 27-24 while limiting the Bucs to just 251 total yards.

Tom Brady had one of his worst games of the season, completing 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.  Even Jared Goff threw for 376 yards and three touchdowns on this Tampa Bay defense, so you can imagine what Stafford is going to do.  That's especially the case with all of the injuries the Bucs have in the secondary that has seen them give up 342 passing yards per game through two games thus far.

The Rams are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.  Los Angeles is 22-8-1 ATS in its last 31 vs. NFC opponents.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bucs.  Roll with the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Washington +9.5

Washington hasn't lost a game by more than 8 points in any of their last 14 games dating back to last season.  That makes for a 14-0 system backing Washington pertaining to this 9.5-point spread against the Bills.  This team has been a money-making machine as an underdog.

I like the spot for Washington getting extra time to prepare after beating the Giants on Thursday last week.  Taylor Heinicke was excellent against the Giants.  He threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns with one interception.  He led the game-winning drive in the final couple minutes.  And he should make even more improvements this week with extra practice time to prepare to be the starter.

Washington's defense has too much talent to play as poorly as it has to this point.  Ron Rivera called out his defense after that win and they should play with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And it's actually a 'buy low' spot on Washington after failing to cover the spread in each of their first two games despite going 1-1 SU.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on Buffalo off its 35-0 win at Miami last week.  The Bills were fortunate that Tua Tagovailoa got hurt in that game and they got to face backup Jacoby Brissett.  And the Bills just simply own the Dolphins, so it wasn't a surprise.  Remember, the Bills were upset at home by the Steelers in Week 1.  And look how bad the Steelers played last week in an upset loss to the Raiders.

Josh Allen has yet to get going.  He is completing just 56% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.  Washington's defense is good enough to keep him in check.  Buffalo is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 games off a division win by more than 10 points.  Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games off a win.  Bet Washington Sunday.

15* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +6.5

I've been extremely impressed with the Los Angeles Chargers through two weeks.  They really should be 2-0.  They dominated more than the final score showed in their 20-16 victory at Washington in Week 1.  They racked up 424 total yards on a good Washington defense and outgained them by 165 yards.

Last week, the refs cost them the game against the Cowboys in a 17-20 loss on a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer by Greg Zurlein.  They had 408 more yards against the Cowboys, and Justin Herbert is quickly becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 675 yards and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season.

The Kansas City Chiefs were fortunate to come back from a 9-point deficit late to beat the Browns 33-29 in Week 1.  Then last week they stumbled and lost 35-36 to the Baltimore Ravens despite getting a pick-six in that contest.  Their defense just cannot be trusted.  They rank last in the NFL in total defense at 469 yards per game and last in yards per play (7.6) allowed.

Dating back to last season, the Chiefs are now just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  They just don't beat teams by more than one score because of their dreadful defense, so getting nearly a full touchdown here with the Chargers is an excellent value.  They'll never be out of this game with Herbert.  And the Chargers have the much better defense.  Holding Washington to 16 points and Dallas to 20 is no small feat.

Last year, the Chargers only lost 20-23 at home as 9-point underdogs to the Chiefs.  They had 479 total yards in that defeat.  They came back and won 38-21 in Week 17 on the road and had 416 more yards.  I would be shocked if the Chiefs won by a touchdown or more here.  And we're quickly seeing that the Super Bowl loser hangover is real with the Chiefs off to an 0-2 ATS start.  Yet they keep getting priced like they are the best team in the NFL week after week, which just isn't the case with their leaky defense..

Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Chargers) - an excellent passing team from last season that averaged 275 or more passing yards per game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards per attempt last game are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Chargers are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 road games off an upset loss as a home favorite.  Los Angeles is 35-14-4 ATS in its last 53 games as a road underdog.  The Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Kansas City.  Take the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New England Patriots -2.5

The New Orleans Saints have been on the road for a month due to the hurricane.  It has been a terrible travel situation for them and they have to be getting fatigued both mentally and physically.  I think we saw some of that last week in their 26-7 loss to Carolina.  And I don't think it's going to get much better for them this week on the road at New England.

After taking advantage of a bad spot for the Packers, who were rusty without Aaron Rodgers most of training camp in a 38-3 win by the Saints, New Orleans came back down to reality last week.  Carolina beat them up and down the field.  They held the Saints to just 128 total yards in the first meaningful road start for Jameis Winston.  He want 11-of-22 for 111 yards with two interceptions in defeat.  He was also sacked four times.

I don't think it was any coincidence that the offense struggled considering they were missing as many as six offensive coaches due to COVID.  Those guys aren't likely to be back this week.  And they are still without WR's Malcolm Thomas and Tre'quan Smith as well as starting C Erik McCoy.  Defensively, the Saints are missing LB Kwon Alexander, DE Marcus Davenport and could be without their top CB in Marshon Lattimore again this week.

After giving the game away with a fumble at the goal line in a 16-17 home loss to the Dolphins in Week 1, the Patriots responded with an emphatic 25-6 beat down of the New York Jets on the road in Week 2.  That's the same Jets team that only lost by 5 to the Panthers the previous week, a Panthers team that beat the Saints by 19.  The Patriots forced four interceptions from Zach Wilson and will likely force a couple more from Winston this week.

The Patriots have been able to run the ball for over 100 yards each of their first two games, and Mac Jones isn't making mistakes.  Jones is completing 73.9% of his passes with one touchdown and zero interceptions this season and easily looks like the best of the rookie quarterbacks through two weeks.

This Patriots defense looks much improved this year, too.  They got back a handful of players that opted out last year and it has made a big difference.  New England is only giving up 11.5 points per game and 297.5 yards per game through two games.  They rank 3rd in scoring defense and 5th in total defense.

Bill Belichick is 81-45 ATS off a division game as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 23-9 ATS after allowing 6 points or less as the coach of New England.  The Patriots are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a win by more than 14 points.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

20* Packers/49ers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 49

The Green Bay Packers gave up 55 combined points to the Saints and Lions the first two weeks.  Those aren't two particularly good offenses.  And the Packers continue to struggle stopping the run this year, which has always been a problem for them.  They rank 26th in the NFL in giving up 4.8 yards per carry.

The 49ers have always been able to run the ball down Green Bay's throats in recent meetings.  They will be able to do whatever they want offensively in this one.  The 49ers have scored 29.0 points per game in their first two games with a nice balance of run and pass.  They'll be up against a 49ers defense that is missing two of its best players in LB Dre Greenlaw and CB Jason Verrett.

The weakness of the entire 49ers team is their secondary, which is bad news going up against a guy like Aaron Rodgers.  He got right last week against the Lions in leading the Packers to 35 points and four touchdown passes.  He looked like his old self and should build on that this week by matching the 49ers score for score.

These teams met in the 2019-20 playoffs and combined for 57 points in a 37-20 San Francisco victory.  Then last year they combined for 51 points in a 34-17 victory by the Packers that saw the 49ers missing several key players on offense due to injuries, including QB Jimmy G.  I think they have no problem topping 49 points for a third straight meeting here.

The OVER is 19-10 in Kyle Shanahan's 29 games as a favorite as the coach of San Francisco.  The OVER is 4-0 in Packers last four games as underdogs.  The OVER is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.  The OVER is 6-0 in Packers last six Week 3 games.  The OVER is 36-17 in Packers last 53 September games.  The OVER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday night.