NBA Betting Trends to Watch
NBA Betting Trends to Watch
These are the NBA betting trends to watch.
NBA Betting Trends to Watch
Every NBA season, new betting patterns emerge that can help you increase your bankroll. The trick each season is in knowing what to look for.
What NBA betting trends should bettors be paying attention to? Here’s a look at six different areas where understanding trends will increase your chances of winning more NBA bets.
Against the Spread Records
One of the most often used betting statistics is the ATS number. It’s a significant number because of the sample size each season. Teams play 82 games so bettors have all kinds of recent and historical numbers.
A lot of times, bettors can find value in NBA betting trends against the point spread. Often, the value is on lesser-known or less popular teams. For example, in the 2016 NBA season, Orlando had a 45-36-1 ATS record despite going 35-47 SU.
It’s a similar story for the Oklahoma City Thunder, another small-market franchise. The Thunder went 24-58 during the 2021-22 NBA season. Despite their shortcomings, point spread bettors that read the NBA betting trends loved the Thunder. They went 48-30-4 ATS, covering the spread 61.5 percent of the time.
NBA Betting Trends – Totals
Betting on NBA game totals is another popular market. There are plenty of useful statistics available to help in betting NBA totals. One of the easiest is simply the number of times a team has gone Over or Under the total.
In the 2016 season for example, the total went Over in 46 Houston games and in 46 Denver games. In the 2022 season, Minnesota saw the total go Over in 52 of 89 games (including playoffs). Dallas, also a 2022 playoff team, had an O/U record of 39-59-2. The total went Under in 60.2 percent of the Mavericks games.
Knowing these NBA betting trends can help a bettor determine what action, if any, to take at a given point in a season. Bettors can also use pace numbers as well as shooting percentages to help determine whether to bet on the Over or the Under.
For example, in the 2020-21 NBA season the Washington Wizards were just 19th in offensive efficiency. However, the Wizards were third in shooting percentage – 49.6 percent – and first in number of possessions (108) per game. That led to Washington finishing fifth in scoring (116.3 ppg) that season. Those numbers are helpful when handicapping NBA totals.
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Home Versus Road
NBA teams win about 63 percent of the time when they play at home. Some teams win more than the average; others less. Then, there are teams where the difference between playing at home or on the road is significantly different.
When analyzing NBA betting trends, this is one to focus on. Consider this one. In the 2015-16 NBA season, Portland went 28-13 at home and outscored opponents by an average of 5.7 points per game.
On the other side, the Trail Blazers were 16-25 on the road and were outscored by an average of 4.1 points per game. Bettors could have used these numbers to their advantage by comparing them to a line on a given night.
NBA Betting Trends & The Schedule
Sometimes, handicapping an NBA game is as simple as looking at the league schedule. The NBA has worked to lighten the load on teams, but there are still times when teams play three games in four days.
Road trips take their toll too. Teams may play four, five, or six road games in a row. Mix that in with playing on back-to-back nights or three games in four days. That takes a toll on a team.
It’s possible to identify NBA betting trends related to the travel schedule. Consider a team on the fifth game of a long opposite coast road trip. Would you trust a tired 10.5-point road favorite to cover? The betting public most likely wouldn’t take this into account if the favorite was Golden State.
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Teams Coming Off Big Wins
Public bettors love popular teams. They love stars and they also put too much emphasis on how a team has performed recently. Take our Golden State Warriors from above as a 10.5-point favorite.
The public loves Golden State, but since they won their last game by 15 points they love the Warriors even more. It’s risky to wager on a double-digit favorite anyway, but it also doesn’t make much sense to bet on the Warriors knowing NBA betting trends.
Teams who won their previous game by 15 points or more have only successfully covered the spread 43% of the time since 2003. You would profit greatly if you solely placed bets on this trend.
The challenge in a case identifying precise circumstances in which you have a favorite coming off victories of 15 points or more along with a -10 or higher line in their subsequent game. Bettors would have to identify other factors that offer value in making such a bet.
Broad NBA Betting Trends
In any given season, there may be a trend that runs for just a certain period of time. For example, you might see underdogs winning straight up 58 percent of the time to start a season. Knowing when to jump on this trend and then when to get off is crucial.
Maybe you find that home underdogs are only covering the spread 38 percent of the time. If you are following NBA betting trends, you start betting against home dogs.
Continue to monitor statistics for other trends that may help in making betting decisions. Trends can also help you in live betting the NBA. This way, you can capitalize on them before the public does.
Last Word
There are several NBA stats that can increase your odds of winning a bet. It’s your responsibility to find them so that you can gain an edge ahead of other gamblers.
Start with ATS and over/under totals because they are simple stats to understand if you are completely new to NBA betting trends.
As you keep analyzing data and patterns, you should start keeping an eye out for somewhat more complex statistics like home/away performances and overvalued favorites.
The NBA betting market is basically like any other. You’ll get better the more practice you get with it. Continue placing bets throughout the season while gradually learning to follow NBA betting trends.
