When NFL Teasers Are Worth the Risk

Written by superuser | September 15, 2022

When NFL Teasers Are Worth the Risk

There are times when NFL teasers are worth the risk.

Key Points

– NFL teasers can provide some favorable payouts.

– An understanding of key numbers helps the NFL teaser bettor.

NFL Teasers Are Worth the Risk

The NFL teaser is like junk food. It shouldn’t make up the biggest part of your diet, but having it every so often is okay. If you want to have success betting NFL teasers, you need to be aware of a handful of factors.

Like any bet, you must first understand the betting basics. You have to understand what a teaser is. It is a parlay, or a group of bets tied together as a single bet. The teaser part of the bet allows the bettor to adjust the point spread in his favor. NFL games are some of the most popular teaser bets.

The most common NFL teaser bets are as follows:

  • Two-team, six-point teaser

  • Two-team, seven-point teaser

  • Three-team, ten-point teaser

Of the three above, the two-team, six-point teaser is the most popular. The payout for this teaser is often a little higher than that on an ordinary NFL point spread bet. Teasers can be profitable, but you need to be aware of a few fundamental ideas.

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The Key Numbers

The rigidity of NFL scoring and the typical margins of victory in NFL games make them a good fit for teasers. More NFL games than any other have a final scoring margin of three points. If you think about it, there are numerous games that end with scores of 17-14, 24-21, and 27-24.

This makes 3 a key number. Other key numbers include 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 as these are the next most common scoring margins in NFL games.

The majority of NFL games are won by 3 points or 7 points. Knowing this, we can begin to look for teaser opportunities. The idea with a teaser is to adjust a point spread to cover these key numbers or as many key numbers as possible.

NFL Teasers Examples

Let’s examine a case in point. An example can help to better understand how a teaser works. We have the following two games.

Baltimore (-8) vs. Cleveland

Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati (-2.5)

Baltimore is favored by eight points over Cleveland and Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point underdog to Cincinnati. If we use a six-point, two-team teaser here, we can tease both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to give ourselves a better shot at a win.

We tease the Ravens to -2 in the opening game. The key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7 have been crossed. That leg of the teaser is successful if Baltimore wins by three points or more.

We can tease Pittsburgh up to +8.5 in the second wager. Once more, we cross the crucial numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7 and win when the Steelers lose by eight points or less or they simply win outright.

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Teaser Stats

In order to break even on a two-team, six-point teaser, your team must have a 72.4 percent chance (or better) of covering after the point spread is teased. This is assuming -110 odds. Keep in mind that since 2003, teams that have been teased six points have covered 69 percent of the time. That won’t cut it.

Instead, look at teasers that capture all the key numbers from 3 to 7 and omit the rest. If we do that, NFL underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 have won their teaser 75.3 percent of the time since 2003. That works.

It works for favorites too. When -7.5 to -8.5 favorites are teased down to -1.5 to -2.5, they cover 76 percent of the time. That is why it is crucial to cross as many key numbers as possible with a teaser bet.

The Two-Team, Seven-Point Teaser

The seven-point teaser uses the same approach as a 6-point teaser. In order to tease across important numbers, bettors are looking for short underdogs and long favorites.

We could tease the Ravens to -1 and the Steelers to +9.5 using the same example from above. Once more, we cross the crucial numbers of 3 and 7, giving us a chance to succeed.

Additionally, looking for games with lower expected totals is usually to a bettor’s advantage. For instance, underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 with a game total of 47 or less win 77 percent of the time when teased up to six points.

It’s worth noting that crossing zero when teasing a bet is generally not a good idea. Ties are more unlikely in the NFL with their new overtime rules. They will occur, but not as frequently. Don’t forget, NFL playoff games cannot end in a tie. When you cross 0 as a number, you essentially remove a final scoring margin. That leaves you with one less opportunity to win.

Pros and Cons of NFL Teasers

Bettors favor teasers for a variety of reasons. The payoff comes first. When two (or three) bets are combined into one, the payment for the bettor is increased. When betting teasers, the customary -110 juice on a single wager frequently becomes plus-money.

Additionally, the teaser bets are less dangerous than a regular parlay. Although the payout won’t be as great, gamblers can manipulate the point spread to their advantage. NFL games are entertaining and fascinating to watch because of teasers. Nothing compares to winning not just one, but two bets and receiving a slightly increased payoff.

On the other hand, a bettor must win all of the legs of a teaser in order to win. Whether it is a 2-team or 3-team teaser, every individual bet must win in order for the teaser to be a success. As a result, winning teaser bets is challenging.

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