Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

Written by superuser | September 22, 2020

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview


Week 3 of the NFL season opens up with a Thursday night battle of the Miami Dolphins and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The 1-1 Jaguars will host the 0-2 Dolphins in front of just under 17,000 fans at TIAA Bank Field.




Last week, Jacksonville, off an upset of Indianapolis in Week 1, dropped a close game to Tennessee (-9.0) 33-30. Meanwhile, the Dolphins let a 20-17 fourth-quarter lead slip away in a 31-28 loss to the favored Buffalo (-5.5).

Early-Season Stats

The Jaguars have covered the spread and gone over the betting line at online sportsbooks in each of their first two games. With a late touchdown against the Bills, the Dolphins moved to 1-1 against the spread and versus the over/under.


With a balanced attack, the Jaguars are averaging 28.5 points, 384 yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. Led by James Robinson, they’ve averaged 143 yards rushing and 5.1 yards per carry over the first two games. Defensively, they’re allowing over 400 total yards a game and a 77% completion rate, but only 3.8 yards per rush.


Jaguars quarterback Gardner Minshew is completing over 75% of his passes for an average of 7.9 yards per attempt. He’s thrown six touchdown passes, but Minshew has also been sacked six times for losses of 47 yards. These stats might be a hint to which direction this free sports pick is going.


Miami has been outgained by 97.5 yards a game, with 71 of those on the ground. In the passing game, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown two touchdowns, three interceptions and been sacked four times.


The Dolphins are averaging less than 100 yards a game and 3.8 yards per carry. Their leading rusher, Myles Gaskin, has only 86 yards and no touchdowns through two games.


Did you see our NFL betting tips for Week 2 over at We went 2-1.

Game Preview

Jacksonville is a three-point favorite, paying -165 on the moneyline with an over/under of 47 points. The underdog Dolphins are paying +145 on the moneyline. Collectively, the average total points for the teams’ first two games was 50.1.


Top handicappers know this game is a poor matchup for the Dolphins, with the Jaguars looking to exploit their weak run defense. Jacksonville’s run defense is good enough to turn the Dolphins one-dimensional on offense, potentially setting up Fitzpatrick for sacks.


The Dolphins are also giving up 10.6 yards per passing attempt and a 72.2% completion rate on defense. Minshew has demonstrated that he’s accurate enough to spread the ball around to multiple receivers, exposing another Dolphin weakness.


For Miami to have a chance of pulling the upset, it will need to stuff the running game early. That could put Minshew on his heels in obvious passing situations, making him vulnerable to an aggressive pass rush. The Dolphins’ best chance is for their passing game to more efficient than it’s been to start the season.


Even though 14 favorites went on to win last week, only seven of those covered the spread. Only five of the 11 home favorites were able to cover, so the road dog bets paid off. The Jags are a home favorite, but the spread is only three over a team they should dominate.


Overall scoring in the league increased by over five points a game from Week 1 to Week 2. Eleven of the 16 games this past week had totals exceeding the over/under line, seven by double digits, including the games involving these two teams.

If that trend continues, the 47 total line might be an opportunity for a winning bet on the over.